* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/10/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 49 51 54 54 46 41 33 31 26 24 28 22 23 21 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 49 51 54 54 46 41 33 31 26 24 28 22 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 45 44 45 45 47 49 48 44 39 34 29 26 24 24 25 25 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 8 10 11 8 20 15 21 26 31 24 24 25 19 26 33 51 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 1 0 2 6 11 13 11 7 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 333 342 333 350 336 303 296 283 271 296 264 268 254 261 236 243 244 SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.3 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.5 25.7 25.7 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 142 143 139 123 119 117 115 113 113 108 104 106 106 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 126 121 120 122 123 121 105 101 99 96 94 94 91 87 88 89 86 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -53.2 -53.7 -54.4 -54.5 -54.7 -54.5 -53.9 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 5 5 3 2 1 3 4 6 2 0 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 52 53 54 55 47 40 31 31 29 33 24 22 22 17 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 22 23 23 23 22 18 15 11 9 5 4 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 98 79 71 61 32 21 7 -5 -20 -48 -78 -48 -31 -55 -52 -90 200 MB DIV -11 -6 -9 1 2 -14 -2 -26 -36 -73 -23 27 47 20 35 -18 -16 700-850 TADV 3 1 0 -2 -2 9 3 5 -3 0 9 11 9 24 2 -12 -14 LAND (KM) 132 136 144 169 196 293 321 310 225 201 193 174 101 81 102 102 46 LAT (DEG N) 23.4 23.3 23.2 23.5 23.7 24.9 26.1 26.7 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.0 85.2 85.4 85.5 85.6 85.4 85.5 85.7 85.1 85.2 85.7 85.8 85.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 2 2 3 4 6 5 4 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 1 3 HEAT CONTENT 89 77 66 54 46 31 11 8 4 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):230/ 11 CX,CY: -7/ -6 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -15. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -9. -13. -20. -24. -31. -32. -27. -32. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 9. 1. -4. -12. -14. -19. -21. -17. -23. -22. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 23.4 85.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 66.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.44 1.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.48 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 293.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.12 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 18.0% 13.4% 11.2% 10.8% 11.4% 11.5% 9.0% Logistic: 3.6% 9.4% 6.1% 2.7% 1.4% 3.3% 1.8% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 9.3% 6.6% 4.7% 4.1% 4.9% 4.4% 3.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 7.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/10/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/10/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 45 46 49 51 54 54 46 41 33 31 26 24 28 22 23 21 18HR AGO 45 44 45 48 50 53 53 45 40 32 30 25 23 27 21 22 20 12HR AGO 45 42 41 44 46 49 49 41 36 28 26 21 19 23 17 18 16 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 40 32 27 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT