* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/09/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 44 45 47 50 53 47 45 38 35 30 25 23 21 19 18 V (KT) LAND 45 43 44 45 47 50 53 47 45 38 35 30 25 23 21 19 18 V (KT) LGEM 45 42 41 41 42 45 45 43 40 37 33 29 26 25 25 26 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SUBT TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 13 8 9 12 13 16 18 19 23 33 28 31 30 23 19 31 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 2 2 0 5 3 10 8 6 3 0 -3 4 4 4 1 SHEAR DIR 313 331 334 329 346 304 308 282 278 288 292 280 276 275 240 249 251 SST (C) 28.1 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.3 26.9 26.7 26.5 26.0 24.5 23.4 23.4 24.3 24.3 23.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 142 141 143 136 125 120 117 116 111 98 89 89 95 95 89 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 125 123 121 124 118 108 102 99 99 94 83 76 76 80 80 77 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.3 -53.4 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.6 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 8 7 7 5 6 4 4 2 4 4 6 5 4 700-500 MB RH 56 55 51 52 54 55 57 54 46 40 39 36 39 35 32 34 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 22 22 23 21 24 20 19 15 14 10 9 9 7 6 5 850 MB ENV VOR 144 114 96 81 75 52 31 15 13 -16 -36 -64 -62 -44 -61 -61 -61 200 MB DIV -14 -27 -12 -9 4 7 16 -9 -13 -51 -33 3 65 64 41 14 3 700-850 TADV -4 2 1 0 -1 7 6 8 2 6 0 8 11 19 13 9 -4 LAND (KM) 171 152 151 173 196 314 354 283 252 202 145 76 44 44 70 70 44 LAT (DEG N) 24.2 23.8 23.3 23.5 23.7 24.9 25.8 26.7 27.2 27.8 28.5 29.1 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.2 84.8 85.4 85.5 85.6 85.8 85.7 85.4 85.3 84.9 84.4 84.0 83.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 4 2 4 5 5 4 3 4 3 3 1 1 1 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 66 92 62 54 46 21 11 10 6 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 14 CX,CY: -10/ -7 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 15.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 4. 2. -0. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -2. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -17. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -1. -6. -9. -15. -18. -24. -26. -25. -26. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -1. -0. 2. 5. 8. 2. -0. -7. -10. -15. -20. -22. -24. -26. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 24.2 84.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.68 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 64.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.42 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.64 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.32 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 264.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.66 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.45 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -11.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.88 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 16.2% 12.2% 10.8% 10.3% 11.3% 10.2% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 3.3% 1.9% 1.0% 0.5% 1.5% 0.8% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.6% 6.6% 4.7% 3.9% 3.6% 4.3% 3.7% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/09/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 43 44 45 47 50 53 47 45 38 35 30 25 23 21 19 18 18HR AGO 45 44 45 46 48 51 54 48 46 39 36 31 26 24 22 20 19 12HR AGO 45 42 41 42 44 47 50 44 42 35 32 27 22 20 18 16 15 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 37 40 43 37 35 28 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT