* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/09/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 50 51 53 57 56 58 55 51 46 41 33 26 25 23 23 V (KT) LAND 50 49 50 51 53 57 56 58 55 51 46 41 31 29 31 29 26 V (KT) LGEM 50 49 48 49 50 53 56 55 53 49 44 38 30 28 30 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 11 6 10 13 11 18 12 17 21 28 30 32 34 21 23 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 0 1 5 7 12 9 6 2 2 1 4 2 6 SHEAR DIR 306 324 322 326 333 310 301 278 280 273 297 281 279 270 273 257 253 SST (C) 27.1 27.7 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.5 28.0 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.0 24.1 22.1 22.1 23.7 23.7 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 125 132 138 140 140 141 135 121 119 117 111 96 83 83 92 92 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 112 117 121 121 119 122 117 103 101 100 95 83 73 72 79 79 74 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -53.7 -53.9 -54.3 -54.2 -54.0 -53.7 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 7 5 6 3 3 1 4 5 6 5 700-500 MB RH 56 57 56 54 55 56 57 56 51 44 40 41 36 37 34 37 37 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 23 23 23 24 25 22 24 23 21 19 16 13 10 10 8 9 850 MB ENV VOR 140 154 125 100 89 76 43 27 18 11 -14 -33 -62 -79 -58 -63 -27 200 MB DIV 1 -10 -27 -13 -13 16 -9 6 -5 -27 -58 -33 4 43 46 57 3 700-850 TADV -6 -2 4 1 1 0 10 6 9 0 5 4 5 14 9 3 1 LAND (KM) 163 199 179 169 165 231 332 257 207 161 138 62 -33 -33 47 47 -33 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.6 24.2 24.0 23.7 24.3 25.4 26.5 26.8 27.4 28.3 29.1 29.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.6 84.4 84.8 85.1 85.3 85.2 85.0 84.6 84.4 84.2 83.8 83.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 8 6 4 2 4 6 4 2 4 4 4 2 2 2 2 3 HEAT CONTENT 14 29 74 83 75 49 25 11 7 4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 795 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 2. -1. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -3. -3. -5. -8. -12. -16. -21. -24. -24. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -0. 1. 3. 7. 6. 8. 5. 1. -4. -9. -17. -24. -25. -27. -27. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 25.0 82.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.65 1.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 55.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.36 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.51 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.23 0.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 273.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -12.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.08 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.8 100.0 to 0.0 0.81 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.2% 15.2% 11.7% 10.5% 9.8% 11.4% 11.2% 8.7% Logistic: 0.8% 2.9% 1.6% 0.8% 0.4% 1.9% 0.9% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 6.1% 4.4% 3.7% 3.4% 4.4% 4.0% 3.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 7.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/09/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 49 50 51 53 57 56 58 55 51 46 41 31 29 31 29 26 18HR AGO 50 49 50 51 53 57 56 58 55 51 46 41 31 29 31 29 26 12HR AGO 50 47 46 47 49 53 52 54 51 47 42 37 27 25 27 25 22 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 42 46 45 47 44 40 35 30 20 18 20 18 15 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT