* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/09/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 55 55 58 58 58 56 55 47 39 29 20 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 55 55 58 58 58 56 55 47 34 31 23 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 57 60 61 60 58 55 48 35 33 26 22 18 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 27 19 12 6 9 14 14 15 22 23 38 41 47 47 57 51 71 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 -1 0 1 -1 6 0 -1 4 5 1 0 4 10 2 -8 SHEAR DIR 275 308 319 325 330 345 303 317 281 269 271 297 289 276 275 273 283 SST (C) 25.6 26.7 27.6 28.2 28.6 28.6 28.1 27.1 26.7 25.8 22.9 21.9 23.2 25.9 26.9 26.0 24.2 POT. INT. (KT) 110 121 131 138 143 142 136 123 118 109 89 84 92 112 123 115 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 99 108 116 122 124 122 119 106 101 94 78 75 81 96 106 100 88 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -53.0 -52.6 -53.6 -54.3 -54.5 -55.0 -56.0 -55.4 -55.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.8 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 7 6 7 4 4 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 57 56 58 57 54 56 57 58 53 47 44 41 36 35 42 41 46 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 22 22 22 21 22 21 21 20 20 18 16 13 10 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 146 143 151 136 105 80 63 25 17 8 -10 -23 -108 -143 -150 -145 -129 200 MB DIV 10 -5 -18 -22 -15 -1 8 -1 0 13 -34 -25 -47 0 79 29 34 700-850 TADV 3 -5 -2 3 1 -1 5 8 6 1 7 3 8 9 34 10 35 LAND (KM) 25 126 215 181 161 177 277 231 152 84 40 -71 19 115 164 179 317 LAT (DEG N) 25.0 24.9 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.9 25.0 26.3 27.2 27.9 28.8 29.6 30.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.3 82.3 83.4 84.0 84.7 85.0 84.8 84.6 84.2 83.7 83.1 82.3 81.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 8 7 4 3 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 9 11 13 13 HEAT CONTENT 0 11 22 58 111 90 45 12 5 0 0 0 0 15 15 3 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 714 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -9. -13. -18. -23. -28. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -9. -14. -18. -22. -26. -26. -26. -25. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -8. -16. -26. -35. -41. -45. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 25.0 81.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 290.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.28 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.09 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 1.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.99 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 4% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.4% 14.8% 11.3% 10.3% 9.1% 11.4% 11.3% 0.0% Logistic: 0.8% 3.2% 1.8% 0.6% 0.3% 1.1% 1.0% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 6.1% 4.4% 3.6% 3.1% 4.2% 4.1% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/09/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/09/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 54 54 55 55 58 58 58 56 55 47 34 31 23 DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 55 58 58 58 56 55 47 34 31 23 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 52 55 55 55 53 52 44 31 28 20 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 45 48 48 48 46 45 37 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT