* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/08/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 58 58 59 60 62 61 61 57 55 47 44 39 35 35 31 V (KT) LAND 55 57 58 58 59 60 62 61 61 57 55 47 44 39 35 35 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 55 55 55 55 57 60 63 63 59 54 49 44 40 37 36 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 24 22 23 17 10 10 13 17 16 21 17 25 20 24 22 22 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -3 -6 -1 0 -1 5 1 2 4 5 5 4 0 3 1 SHEAR DIR 255 248 272 309 331 329 343 305 306 293 274 284 295 284 273 265 245 SST (C) 28.5 27.7 25.6 27.0 27.9 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.3 27.0 27.0 26.9 26.4 25.6 25.0 23.0 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 134 110 125 134 143 139 137 125 120 120 120 114 106 101 89 84 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 122 99 113 119 123 118 118 108 102 100 101 96 89 86 78 75 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 -54.1 -54.5 -54.4 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 1.4 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.0 -0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 6 700-500 MB RH 65 61 57 55 55 55 55 54 57 54 50 44 43 41 39 37 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 23 23 22 21 22 21 21 20 19 15 13 10 7 7 5 850 MB ENV VOR 182 181 156 151 157 114 86 71 53 17 21 -6 -6 -20 -40 2 -76 200 MB DIV 103 74 24 -6 -20 -13 1 -6 14 -9 -12 -31 -21 -9 43 56 8 700-850 TADV 15 9 1 -4 -4 1 0 4 0 8 4 4 1 -2 -2 21 18 LAND (KM) 102 111 25 145 189 191 249 285 304 239 216 175 107 74 58 40 -54 LAT (DEG N) 23.5 24.3 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.2 24.3 24.7 25.9 26.5 26.6 26.9 27.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.2 80.3 81.3 82.5 83.7 84.7 85.6 85.6 85.2 84.8 84.6 84.3 83.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 10 11 8 4 2 4 5 2 1 3 3 2 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 28 20 0 14 38 99 36 28 15 12 10 6 3 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 14 CX,CY: -3/ 14 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 649 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -8. -11. -12. -19. -22. -25. -28. -27. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 7. 6. 6. 2. -0. -8. -11. -16. -20. -20. -24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.5 79.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.40 1.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 254.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.67 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.31 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.30 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.90 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.6% 18.6% 13.4% 11.1% 9.9% 12.8% 12.7% 11.0% Logistic: 1.4% 7.6% 4.3% 0.8% 0.3% 1.6% 1.1% 0.6% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 8.8% 5.9% 4.0% 3.4% 4.8% 4.6% 3.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/08/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 57 58 58 59 60 62 61 61 57 55 47 44 39 35 35 29 18HR AGO 55 54 55 55 56 57 59 58 58 54 52 44 41 36 32 32 26 12HR AGO 55 52 51 51 52 53 55 54 54 50 48 40 37 32 28 28 22 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 47 49 48 48 44 42 34 31 26 22 22 16 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT