* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/08/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 53 53 54 56 58 62 61 64 61 59 54 50 44 41 36 V (KT) LAND 50 54 56 56 57 59 61 65 64 67 64 62 57 52 47 44 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 52 51 51 50 50 54 58 60 60 58 53 48 42 38 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 28 23 24 23 16 8 12 10 16 14 18 20 19 13 14 19 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -1 0 -4 -7 0 0 1 2 4 10 7 16 10 8 0 10 SHEAR DIR 259 251 244 264 305 326 344 305 293 258 268 270 296 269 287 249 264 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.1 26.6 26.7 28.0 28.5 28.6 28.0 27.4 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.4 25.3 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 150 148 138 120 120 135 141 142 134 125 122 121 117 115 113 106 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 137 124 107 107 117 121 120 114 106 103 102 99 96 95 91 77 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.6 -53.8 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 6 6 4 5 5 6 4 700-500 MB RH 70 64 61 57 57 58 57 56 56 55 50 45 39 39 37 39 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 25 26 24 24 24 23 24 23 25 24 23 21 19 15 13 9 850 MB ENV VOR 164 183 181 163 157 144 96 91 76 52 29 29 19 8 -44 -35 -46 200 MB DIV 99 108 93 30 -21 -12 -9 3 -2 22 -3 -12 -36 -16 9 29 8 700-850 TADV 23 21 8 4 -2 1 2 0 5 0 7 0 1 2 -2 3 25 LAND (KM) -40 49 125 79 108 163 204 224 309 293 250 203 143 116 98 65 -11 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 23.1 24.3 24.5 24.6 24.3 24.4 24.4 25.2 25.8 26.1 26.5 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.5 79.9 81.0 82.0 83.5 84.5 85.0 85.1 85.0 84.7 84.4 84.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 10 10 8 5 4 2 3 3 2 3 2 1 2 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 29 26 9 15 40 87 75 31 18 15 10 5 4 4 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 10 CX,CY: 4/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -17. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. 12. 11. 14. 11. 9. 4. -0. -6. -9. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 21.9 79.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 3.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.27 0.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 22.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 1.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.40 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.42 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 30.7 100.0 to 0.0 0.69 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.8% 15.1% 10.7% 8.1% 7.3% 10.5% 11.9% 11.7% Logistic: 1.6% 5.3% 2.6% 0.5% 0.2% 1.2% 0.8% 0.7% Bayesian: 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 6.8% 4.4% 2.9% 2.5% 3.9% 4.2% 4.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/08/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 54 56 56 57 59 61 65 64 67 64 62 57 52 47 44 35 18HR AGO 50 49 51 51 52 54 56 60 59 62 59 57 52 47 42 39 30 12HR AGO 50 47 46 46 47 49 51 55 54 57 54 52 47 42 37 34 25 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 41 43 45 49 48 51 48 46 41 36 31 28 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT