* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/08/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 57 59 61 62 64 65 68 71 70 66 65 57 54 48 42 37 V (KT) LAND 55 49 49 51 52 54 55 58 61 60 56 55 47 44 32 30 25 V (KT) LGEM 55 50 44 51 51 52 54 58 62 61 59 55 51 47 34 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 31 26 20 20 23 8 11 14 15 17 15 18 20 17 27 35 38 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 1 0 -6 0 2 -1 6 3 14 5 7 10 1 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 253 259 247 234 260 325 329 325 288 290 282 277 280 285 264 262 266 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.7 27.2 27.9 28.1 27.8 27.5 27.5 27.2 26.8 24.0 22.2 24.2 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 157 153 149 145 132 125 133 135 130 125 126 124 120 97 87 98 118 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 139 135 131 118 110 115 115 110 104 106 106 104 85 77 85 99 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -51.5 -51.9 -51.9 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.4 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.9 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 8 7 8 7 7 5 5 2 3 3 700-500 MB RH 71 68 66 62 58 59 57 55 56 54 52 48 41 42 42 43 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 26 28 29 28 27 27 28 29 29 28 28 25 26 25 22 21 850 MB ENV VOR 142 167 187 187 166 160 117 83 68 49 43 29 21 16 -8 -47 -44 200 MB DIV 89 86 117 71 30 -27 -5 13 -2 15 5 12 -15 -24 11 87 108 700-850 TADV 20 20 15 6 2 1 4 -1 4 2 8 6 3 -1 10 9 51 LAND (KM) 83 -12 8 48 117 147 202 254 298 281 263 210 135 55 -78 70 126 LAT (DEG N) 20.9 21.8 22.6 23.4 24.1 24.7 24.6 24.9 25.4 25.7 25.7 26.2 27.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.8 79.6 79.5 80.1 80.7 82.5 83.8 84.5 84.8 84.8 84.6 84.3 84.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 9 8 7 5 3 2 1 2 4 6 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 58 40 33 32 23 18 36 47 31 23 23 13 6 0 0 0 33 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 10 CX,CY: 6/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 0. -3. -5. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. -1. -1. -6. -5. -7. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 13. 16. 15. 11. 10. 2. -1. -7. -13. -18. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.9 79.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.23 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.15 0.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 178.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.75 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.46 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.50 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.92 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 16.0% 11.0% 8.0% 6.7% 10.3% 11.6% 13.6% Logistic: 2.0% 4.3% 2.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.5% 0.7% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 6.8% 4.4% 2.8% 2.3% 3.6% 4.1% 4.7% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/08/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 49 49 51 52 54 55 58 61 60 56 55 47 44 32 30 25 18HR AGO 55 54 54 56 57 59 60 63 66 65 61 60 52 49 37 35 30 12HR AGO 55 52 51 53 54 56 57 60 63 62 58 57 49 46 34 32 27 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 46 48 49 52 55 54 50 49 41 38 26 24 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT