* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/08/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 68 69 69 69 70 66 62 58 54 50 46 44 39 V (KT) LAND 55 59 49 55 58 59 59 59 59 55 52 48 44 40 36 34 29 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 52 55 57 57 57 60 63 63 60 58 54 50 46 41 37 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 27 31 27 17 16 13 7 12 10 20 15 22 22 25 27 35 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 4 -1 2 0 -5 -1 2 2 1 3 7 0 3 9 3 -1 SHEAR DIR 242 249 255 244 226 284 336 323 306 303 292 284 260 277 270 268 259 SST (C) 29.4 29.2 29.0 28.8 28.5 26.8 26.7 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 159 155 151 148 143 120 119 126 124 125 122 121 121 120 118 115 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 143 137 134 128 106 105 108 104 105 102 101 101 100 98 96 95 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.4 -52.7 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.3 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 3 4 2 5 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 70 66 64 68 63 60 57 52 51 46 42 41 39 41 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 27 29 27 26 27 27 26 26 25 25 25 24 24 22 850 MB ENV VOR 146 147 168 191 187 161 156 100 82 56 47 32 37 41 26 -9 -17 200 MB DIV 103 85 93 133 102 4 -20 -8 0 -17 22 -7 2 -49 -32 14 49 700-850 TADV 8 22 20 15 5 5 4 0 -1 2 0 7 -1 -1 0 2 8 LAND (KM) 148 48 -35 49 114 65 92 175 183 184 192 176 145 139 143 129 98 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 21.2 21.9 22.8 23.7 24.6 24.9 25.5 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.5 26.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.2 79.6 78.9 79.1 79.4 80.5 82.0 83.4 83.6 83.8 84.1 84.1 83.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 8 9 8 7 7 4 1 2 2 1 1 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 74 49 34 31 29 9 11 17 16 15 12 10 10 8 5 4 3 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 14 CX,CY: 11/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 443 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 15.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -5. -7. -7. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 11. 7. 3. -1. -5. -9. -11. -16. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.4 80.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 6.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.35 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.6 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 1.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 117.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.82 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 103.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.62 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 29.2% 15.4% 11.0% 9.5% 12.4% 14.2% 16.6% Logistic: 4.9% 12.1% 5.3% 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.6% 0.4% Bayesian: 2.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.3% 13.9% 6.9% 3.9% 3.2% 4.4% 5.0% 5.7% DTOPS: 1.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/08/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/08/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 49 55 58 59 59 59 59 55 52 48 44 40 36 34 29 18HR AGO 55 54 44 50 53 54 54 54 54 50 47 43 39 35 31 29 24 12HR AGO 55 52 51 57 60 61 61 61 61 57 54 50 46 42 38 36 31 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 48 49 49 49 49 45 42 38 34 30 26 24 19 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT