* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/07/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 57 64 68 74 80 79 74 70 62 57 48 42 32 25 20 N/A V (KT) LAND 50 57 51 56 61 67 58 50 47 39 34 25 19 21 25 24 N/A V (KT) LGEM 50 58 53 55 58 61 60 48 52 57 59 57 52 38 36 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 29 34 29 19 22 9 11 9 13 6 13 24 36 34 41 61 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 4 0 0 -2 -4 3 -2 4 3 8 2 4 4 3 4 SHEAR DIR 241 232 245 255 247 251 322 327 324 281 309 267 243 269 288 276 266 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.9 28.6 28.3 25.8 25.9 26.8 27.1 26.9 25.5 22.3 22.1 22.4 22.2 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 162 160 152 149 144 139 111 111 118 121 120 107 86 82 83 86 86 ADJ. POT. INT. 158 152 139 133 128 122 99 96 100 101 102 93 76 71 72 77 77 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -53.6 -54.1 -54.8 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.7 0.5 0.7 0.3 -0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 6 6 7 6 6 2 3 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 73 71 71 70 65 69 66 65 57 51 47 46 42 44 39 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 24 27 26 28 31 28 27 26 24 24 21 20 17 14 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 133 158 165 175 191 170 159 121 127 70 38 7 17 -9 -8 -19 -76 200 MB DIV 142 118 107 91 127 67 23 -1 25 -1 30 1 6 -7 -23 -13 48 700-850 TADV 13 7 20 15 13 10 6 5 0 4 -2 4 4 5 -2 4 39 LAND (KM) 221 88 -42 33 113 167 -9 28 79 107 94 55 4 -17 3 -55 -142 LAT (DEG N) 20.0 21.0 21.9 22.6 23.3 24.6 25.6 26.2 26.4 26.5 26.9 27.8 29.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 80.1 79.2 78.9 78.7 78.9 80.4 82.1 82.9 83.3 83.4 83.4 83.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 15 13 10 7 7 7 9 6 3 1 4 6 5 0 0 7 10 HEAT CONTENT 87 67 35 32 30 31 0 9 18 14 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 55/ 16 CX,CY: 13/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 424 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 2. -1. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 6. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -8. -10. -14. -17. -19. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 18. 24. 30. 29. 24. 20. 12. 7. -2. -8. -18. -25. -30. -39. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.0 81.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 14.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.13 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 50.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.33 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 5.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 2.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.66 3.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 95.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.84 3.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 92.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.58 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 117.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.68 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 28% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 54% is 4.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 28% is 6.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.3% 53.6% 34.6% 13.5% 11.7% 15.6% 28.4% 17.0% Logistic: 16.2% 24.5% 11.6% 3.0% 1.0% 2.4% 1.1% 0.7% Bayesian: 8.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 17.6% 26.4% 15.4% 5.5% 4.2% 6.0% 9.8% 5.9% DTOPS: 3.0% 6.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/07/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 57 51 56 61 67 58 50 47 39 34 25 19 21 25 24 DIS 18HR AGO 50 49 43 48 53 59 50 42 39 31 26 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 56 62 53 45 42 34 29 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 45 51 42 34 31 23 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT