* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/07/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 43 50 56 57 58 55 50 45 38 31 27 26 22 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 35 44 50 46 47 44 39 34 27 21 16 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 29 32 32 28 33 35 35 35 33 30 27 24 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 15 21 25 32 28 26 7 5 12 5 10 12 25 32 26 34 45 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 10 12 9 3 2 1 -4 0 0 7 9 8 7 0 -3 2 9 SHEAR DIR 240 239 244 255 256 216 293 7 324 297 312 296 280 273 285 267 252 SST (C) 29.4 29.5 29.5 29.4 29.0 28.5 28.0 25.4 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.1 26.4 26.3 25.8 25.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 160 161 161 159 151 142 136 108 127 123 120 112 115 113 108 105 101 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 153 150 138 126 119 97 111 104 102 96 98 95 90 90 88 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.9 -52.3 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.9 -54.3 -54.8 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.1 1.0 1.5 1.3 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 2 3 1 2 0 700-500 MB RH 78 77 75 70 69 65 66 61 52 49 44 38 28 22 22 26 28 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 24 24 26 28 31 31 28 26 23 20 17 13 10 8 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 124 158 154 172 198 169 168 134 86 34 30 14 -6 -55 -94 -132 200 MB DIV 91 137 116 89 98 75 48 5 -10 -4 -19 -2 -55 -32 -44 -24 -12 700-850 TADV 5 15 17 29 23 4 5 4 0 0 3 4 1 -13 -9 -19 0 LAND (KM) 307 267 192 67 -25 118 113 5 191 207 91 64 192 171 107 114 64 LAT (DEG N) 19.2 19.7 20.2 21.2 22.1 23.7 24.7 25.8 25.8 26.1 26.8 27.4 27.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.2 82.1 80.9 80.1 79.4 79.3 79.5 81.4 83.8 84.2 83.3 83.3 84.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 12 12 9 7 7 10 6 3 3 4 4 2 2 4 8 HEAT CONTENT 69 84 85 63 35 29 29 0 16 13 12 4 2 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 14 CX,CY: 12/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 475 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. 23. 21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 10. 7. 5. 0. -5. -10. -15. -19. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -10. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 20. 26. 27. 28. 25. 20. 15. 8. 1. -3. -4. -8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 19.2 83.2 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.21 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 67.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.44 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.42 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.58 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 58.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 17.2% 11.7% 7.5% 6.4% 8.8% 10.1% 16.0% Logistic: 3.2% 5.3% 2.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 0.7% 0.9% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 7.5% 4.5% 2.7% 2.2% 3.2% 3.6% 5.6% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/07/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 38 35 44 50 46 47 44 39 34 27 21 16 15 DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 32 41 47 43 44 41 36 31 24 18 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 26 35 41 37 38 35 30 25 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 17 26 32 28 29 26 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT