* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/07/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 36 40 43 52 60 62 58 51 46 42 35 31 25 23 21 V (KT) LAND 30 32 36 40 43 40 51 53 49 42 37 33 26 22 16 N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 29 32 32 31 31 32 30 28 25 22 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 20 27 33 25 21 12 14 15 13 13 23 24 28 29 37 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 13 14 7 3 4 -1 1 4 2 13 5 7 4 4 2 7 SHEAR DIR 244 246 250 246 265 244 258 358 350 338 303 289 285 286 281 257 243 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.6 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.6 26.3 25.7 24.3 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 159 160 158 153 122 126 129 129 125 120 119 117 113 108 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 155 153 149 147 140 108 109 111 110 106 102 100 99 96 92 84 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.3 -53.5 -53.6 -54.6 -54.8 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.9 1.3 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 -0.1 -0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 1 3 1 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 73 69 62 55 48 44 40 39 33 29 28 25 28 25 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 21 23 24 25 30 32 30 26 22 19 17 13 10 6 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 117 100 115 146 154 180 175 176 145 86 40 24 4 -13 -55 -49 -72 200 MB DIV 92 96 113 94 58 65 33 25 -8 5 -20 -1 -41 -60 -15 -10 34 700-850 TADV 6 6 10 10 24 17 7 7 0 -4 0 6 -2 -2 3 -6 0 LAND (KM) 226 320 299 231 146 -33 83 185 249 292 340 334 278 236 195 134 36 LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.7 22.7 24.5 24.8 25.1 25.5 25.9 26.4 27.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.5 84.2 82.9 82.1 81.4 80.6 81.5 83.0 84.0 84.8 85.6 85.8 85.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 14 12 10 9 10 8 6 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 79 70 77 86 91 45 20 18 27 29 17 16 13 5 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 60/ 9 CX,CY: 8/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 29.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 14. 19. 22. 24. 26. 27. 27. 26. 25. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. -0. -3. -4. -7. -8. -8. -10. -13. -16. -18. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 10. 14. 13. 8. 2. -2. -6. -13. -15. -20. -22. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 13. 22. 30. 32. 28. 21. 16. 12. 5. 1. -5. -7. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.0 85.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.25 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 80.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.53 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.60 2.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 64.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.83 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 90.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.0% 19.8% 13.6% 9.3% 8.3% 9.7% 0.0% 14.2% Logistic: 5.2% 7.0% 3.1% 1.5% 0.5% 2.1% 1.4% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.7% 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.3% 9.0% 5.6% 3.7% 2.9% 3.9% 0.5% 4.9% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/07/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 36 40 43 40 51 53 49 42 37 33 26 22 16 DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 33 37 40 37 48 50 46 39 34 30 23 19 DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 30 33 30 41 43 39 32 27 23 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 20 31 33 29 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT