* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/07/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 38 43 46 54 61 66 63 56 46 39 31 25 22 22 21 V (KT) LAND 30 33 38 43 46 54 49 53 51 43 34 26 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 34 33 34 33 33 33 31 29 26 24 22 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 19 20 22 26 30 26 12 10 15 14 19 23 26 20 17 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 7 11 12 10 4 4 -4 0 5 5 8 1 0 0 4 3 SHEAR DIR 239 229 244 252 244 254 231 252 357 350 317 313 284 294 281 262 227 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 28.9 26.1 26.8 27.4 27.7 27.2 26.8 26.4 26.3 25.8 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 156 158 158 159 161 158 149 113 120 127 130 125 119 114 113 109 97 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 151 153 152 144 134 99 104 110 112 108 102 97 95 92 83 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.2 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -53.7 -53.8 -54.4 -55.1 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 6 5 6 6 5 6 6 5 4 5 3 3 2 2 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 76 76 67 62 58 54 48 45 39 30 27 29 33 26 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 21 23 24 27 30 32 28 23 18 15 10 6 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 129 104 94 118 155 176 193 175 184 134 84 26 5 -25 -65 -38 -47 200 MB DIV 128 117 111 112 90 76 35 32 13 -20 -15 -28 -35 -71 -35 -20 18 700-850 TADV 4 4 6 12 14 20 4 7 5 0 0 1 -5 -2 -1 4 -15 LAND (KM) 206 264 341 301 211 15 58 40 111 201 271 290 275 201 167 113 35 LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.3 18.8 19.5 20.1 21.6 23.4 24.8 24.9 24.9 25.2 26.0 27.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.8 84.6 83.5 82.4 81.3 80.0 80.0 81.0 82.2 83.3 84.3 85.1 85.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 8 8 6 5 5 5 6 5 3 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 81 73 68 85 91 54 35 1 14 18 34 24 11 2 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 10 CX,CY: 9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 38.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 19. 22. 25. 26. 28. 28. 27. 26. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -0. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 4. 5. 8. 13. 17. 13. 6. -1. -7. -14. -18. -21. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 8. 11. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 16. 24. 31. 36. 33. 26. 16. 9. 1. -5. -8. -8. -9. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.7 85.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.33 1.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 79.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.52 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 49.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.7 27.5 to 139.6 0.84 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.66 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.3% 23.0% 14.8% 10.0% 9.2% 10.5% 0.0% 15.3% Logistic: 6.0% 12.4% 5.3% 2.5% 0.8% 1.7% 1.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.6% 11.9% 6.7% 4.2% 3.3% 4.1% 0.3% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 7.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/07/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/07/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 38 43 46 54 49 53 51 43 34 26 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 30 29 34 39 42 50 45 49 47 39 30 22 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 34 42 37 41 39 31 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 26 30 28 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT