* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/06/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 37 39 42 47 50 54 52 50 45 41 36 35 32 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 37 39 42 38 41 45 43 41 36 32 27 26 23 22 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 31 31 31 30 26 28 27 26 27 27 26 25 23 21 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 23 28 26 33 32 30 11 12 15 15 18 22 21 29 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 11 11 6 7 9 7 4 2 -1 1 0 9 2 3 0 8 7 SHEAR DIR 241 244 246 258 265 258 267 259 276 2 360 316 312 301 283 265 251 SST (C) 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 28.6 27.5 27.9 28.3 27.9 27.2 26.8 26.4 25.0 23.2 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 156 157 159 159 154 144 129 134 138 133 124 120 116 104 93 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 150 149 150 152 149 137 127 113 117 119 114 107 103 99 91 82 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.5 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.4 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.1 -54.9 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.8 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 4 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 3 3 1 1 700-500 MB RH 78 79 78 76 75 69 61 59 55 49 44 41 39 32 28 34 29 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 17 20 20 23 24 25 26 24 22 17 14 11 9 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 126 128 108 88 105 142 181 185 180 159 104 66 35 3 -14 -9 7 200 MB DIV 157 143 127 108 80 78 60 26 29 2 -5 -11 -9 -43 -47 4 -10 700-850 TADV 5 9 10 7 11 15 23 8 7 2 -2 0 2 1 0 11 -25 LAND (KM) 117 184 256 328 309 122 -27 61 137 202 245 307 303 284 209 73 -100 LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.8 19.3 20.9 22.6 23.6 24.4 24.6 24.6 25.0 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.1 86.1 85.0 84.0 82.9 80.9 80.1 81.0 82.3 83.8 85.0 85.5 85.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 11 11 11 12 11 7 6 7 6 4 4 5 5 6 8 10 HEAT CONTENT 77 85 75 69 76 92 40 52 31 33 63 29 22 11 3 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 5 CX,CY: 2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 20. 23. 26. 28. 29. 30. 30. 29. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -7. -10. -11. -13. -13. -14. -16. -18. -20. -23. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 8. 5. -2. -7. -12. -14. -17. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 9. 12. 17. 20. 24. 22. 20. 15. 11. 6. 5. 2. -4. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.1 87.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.29 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 76.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.50 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.38 1.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.72 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 54.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 123.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.1% 19.1% 12.9% 8.1% 7.3% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.5% 10.9% 4.0% 1.5% 0.5% 1.1% 1.2% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 10.0% 5.7% 3.2% 2.6% 3.5% 0.4% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/06/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 31 34 37 39 42 38 41 45 43 41 36 32 27 26 23 22 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 37 40 36 39 43 41 39 34 30 25 24 21 20 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 31 34 30 33 37 35 33 28 24 19 18 15 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 22 25 21 24 28 26 24 19 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT