* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/06/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 47 50 56 60 63 59 51 49 44 37 30 26 19 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 47 50 49 53 56 52 44 42 37 30 23 19 17 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 32 33 32 28 32 31 29 29 31 31 30 28 25 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 21 23 27 27 30 38 33 15 8 14 11 17 20 27 24 44 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 8 9 8 11 8 3 6 -4 0 3 6 12 9 6 5 11 SHEAR DIR 225 227 235 238 244 256 264 243 259 23 342 334 307 280 295 268 253 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.1 27.8 25.6 27.2 27.6 27.4 27.0 26.7 26.6 25.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 154 157 157 157 158 159 153 132 108 125 129 126 121 118 118 108 95 ADJ. POT. INT. 146 150 150 150 150 149 138 116 95 110 112 107 103 101 100 94 84 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -53.4 -54.2 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.8 1.1 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.3 0.2 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 5 5 6 4 4 0 700-500 MB RH 78 75 76 75 75 74 64 63 54 51 42 42 42 34 28 29 31 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 15 18 21 24 24 27 32 34 30 26 25 23 18 13 9 5 850 MB ENV VOR 120 123 110 93 86 148 172 187 180 184 121 71 31 13 -31 -38 -20 200 MB DIV 158 175 156 126 106 97 69 44 25 19 -22 -11 -24 -31 -71 -24 -3 700-850 TADV 1 5 4 9 7 17 30 22 6 3 0 0 3 1 3 8 -7 LAND (KM) 84 128 213 278 241 100 16 108 10 134 272 307 230 228 228 113 -75 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.3 19.8 21.1 22.9 24.3 25.1 25.3 25.3 25.7 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.3 86.4 85.5 84.4 83.3 81.1 79.8 80.2 81.2 82.8 84.4 85.1 84.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 12 11 8 6 6 7 6 3 4 4 5 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 80 90 75 70 75 91 37 23 0 17 32 25 15 8 5 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 7 CX,CY: 2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 565 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 34.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 8. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. 28. 28. 27. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -2. -8. -12. -14. -15. -16. -16. -18. -20. -21. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 6. 11. 18. 22. 16. 10. 8. 4. -3. -9. -14. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 17. 20. 26. 30. 33. 29. 21. 19. 14. 7. 0. -4. -11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.6 87.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 5.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.24 0.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 78.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.51 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.83 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.67 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 70.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.81 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 2.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 29.8% 15.4% 10.3% 9.5% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 12.0% 17.6% 8.1% 3.0% 0.9% 1.3% 0.6% 0.2% Bayesian: 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.1% 15.9% 7.8% 4.4% 3.5% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 12.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/06/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 37 42 47 50 49 53 56 52 44 42 37 30 23 19 17 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 46 45 49 52 48 40 38 33 26 19 15 DIS 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 39 38 42 45 41 33 31 26 19 DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 28 27 31 34 30 22 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT