* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/06/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 43 48 53 58 62 60 56 53 51 48 42 36 30 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 43 48 46 47 52 49 46 43 41 37 31 25 19 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 33 32 31 31 29 30 31 33 34 33 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 21 20 24 26 24 33 30 25 12 13 14 16 19 24 23 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 7 9 8 12 12 5 7 -4 -2 4 0 10 7 12 8 10 SHEAR DIR 229 223 227 234 233 252 254 251 246 351 352 350 307 292 284 307 295 SST (C) 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.3 29.3 28.8 25.6 26.8 27.6 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.8 26.3 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 156 159 157 155 157 157 148 109 120 129 131 127 123 119 114 100 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 149 152 150 147 149 144 132 96 105 112 113 109 105 101 98 87 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.8 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.8 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 5 6 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 7 4 700-500 MB RH 79 78 74 75 75 74 69 64 61 58 55 52 48 43 41 39 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 15 20 22 25 26 30 33 30 27 25 24 24 20 16 11 850 MB ENV VOR 115 119 122 109 97 128 168 188 182 183 151 95 55 27 -5 -47 -48 200 MB DIV 131 151 162 149 118 88 101 55 37 21 -13 8 -4 -2 -53 -42 -10 700-850 TADV 1 0 3 4 7 15 22 25 9 2 1 -2 4 3 6 4 10 LAND (KM) 64 103 136 236 256 201 -6 96 29 106 205 273 294 287 246 157 37 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.7 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.3 21.8 23.7 24.9 25.2 25.1 25.4 26.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.6 87.0 86.3 85.2 84.2 82.0 80.0 79.8 81.0 82.3 83.5 84.5 85.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 11 11 12 10 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 60 90 88 74 74 81 42 32 0 17 22 31 28 22 9 1 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 10/ 7 CX,CY: 1/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -1. -6. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 17. 22. 18. 14. 10. 8. 6. 1. -4. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 5. 2. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 13. 18. 23. 28. 32. 30. 26. 23. 21. 18. 12. 6. -0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 17.0 87.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.60 4.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.31 0.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 77.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.51 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.65 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 69.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.87 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.80 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 19.6% 13.2% 8.3% 7.6% 9.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.7% 17.0% 6.7% 1.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.1% 12.3% 6.7% 3.4% 2.8% 3.6% 0.2% 0.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/06/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 32 35 40 43 48 46 47 52 49 46 43 41 37 31 25 19 18HR AGO 30 29 32 37 40 45 43 44 49 46 43 40 38 34 28 22 16 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 34 39 37 38 43 40 37 34 32 28 22 16 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 28 26 27 32 29 26 23 21 17 DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT