* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/06/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 40 46 52 59 63 67 72 70 67 62 59 56 53 50 47 V (KT) LAND 30 34 40 46 52 59 63 51 53 51 48 43 40 37 34 31 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 35 38 40 43 42 36 38 38 38 40 43 45 45 44 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 19 21 19 22 23 25 34 23 14 9 13 12 9 14 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 5 8 10 17 8 2 3 -7 -3 3 3 13 6 13 3 SHEAR DIR 185 231 231 240 232 237 253 263 235 256 357 330 310 304 278 295 281 SST (C) 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.3 28.1 28.2 27.6 27.6 27.0 26.9 26.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 155 157 156 155 153 153 154 149 140 138 137 128 130 122 121 116 ADJ. POT. INT. 143 149 149 147 144 142 142 138 129 125 123 118 109 112 105 104 100 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -52.6 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.4 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.8 0.6 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 6 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 82 79 77 75 75 71 70 62 64 60 54 51 53 45 37 29 34 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 15 18 21 25 26 29 34 33 30 27 26 24 21 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 111 119 133 130 110 109 160 156 186 188 176 112 80 34 18 -16 -45 200 MB DIV 114 131 158 171 140 106 75 87 62 32 -7 -16 5 -16 -38 -54 -2 700-850 TADV 4 3 2 5 2 7 15 24 14 0 2 1 0 0 -1 3 4 LAND (KM) 43 106 119 175 238 199 89 -46 83 100 124 212 227 270 397 319 189 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.2 20.1 21.3 22.4 23.4 23.9 24.1 24.6 25.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.8 87.2 86.6 85.9 85.2 83.6 81.9 80.4 79.4 80.4 82.8 84.2 84.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 9 9 9 10 7 4 8 9 4 3 6 6 5 7 HEAT CONTENT 44 73 95 82 75 76 74 42 34 28 40 56 22 26 11 15 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 8 CX,CY: -3/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 26. 29. 30. 32. 31. 31. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -4. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 13. 17. 25. 23. 19. 14. 11. 8. 3. -1. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 10. 16. 22. 29. 33. 37. 42. 40. 37. 32. 29. 26. 23. 20. 17. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 16.2 87.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 30.1 to 2.3 0.39 1.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 73.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.49 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.52 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.69 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 60.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.80 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 2.5 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 27.1% 15.1% 9.8% 8.9% 11.1% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 9.3% 28.5% 12.9% 3.3% 1.0% 1.2% 1.0% 0.7% Bayesian: 1.0% 0.7% 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.9% 18.8% 9.4% 4.4% 3.4% 4.1% 4.8% 0.2% DTOPS: 1.0% 17.0% 7.0% 1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/06/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/06/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 40 46 52 59 63 51 53 51 48 43 40 37 34 31 28 18HR AGO 30 29 35 41 47 54 58 46 48 46 43 38 35 32 29 26 23 12HR AGO 30 27 26 32 38 45 49 37 39 37 34 29 26 23 20 17 DIS 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 26 33 37 25 27 25 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT