* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/05/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 46 51 53 53 54 57 58 57 59 60 60 59 59 V (KT) LAND 30 35 39 44 48 53 55 55 47 50 50 50 52 53 52 52 52 V (KT) LGEM 30 34 36 39 41 44 41 38 32 34 34 35 39 46 51 55 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 9 16 16 15 19 26 28 29 21 10 7 5 10 13 13 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 6 11 14 9 5 4 2 -2 -2 -2 2 -4 2 1 SHEAR DIR 155 237 229 250 245 248 254 261 268 251 285 352 4 301 305 318 354 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.6 28.1 27.8 27.9 27.7 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 150 153 156 155 155 155 156 152 144 137 132 130 127 132 129 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 140 139 142 146 146 143 144 141 131 127 121 115 109 107 114 113 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.6 -52.4 -53.0 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 82 83 81 80 78 77 72 67 64 61 58 55 54 55 57 54 44 MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 13 15 17 20 21 20 21 24 23 20 20 21 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 145 113 113 124 128 112 130 154 147 160 156 124 93 52 49 16 -44 200 MB DIV 106 115 116 138 133 81 62 43 63 15 13 -15 4 2 18 -14 -4 700-850 TADV 2 4 1 7 5 10 11 14 23 8 5 0 1 5 -2 2 -2 LAND (KM) -32 31 53 90 115 244 210 126 -45 59 67 100 210 241 225 258 359 LAT (DEG N) 15.5 16.1 16.7 17.2 17.6 18.8 20.0 21.0 22.3 23.2 23.6 24.1 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.7 87.8 87.8 87.3 86.9 85.2 83.6 82.1 80.2 79.5 80.5 82.0 83.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 6 8 10 9 10 8 3 6 7 5 0 0 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 36 43 51 73 90 74 76 78 41 36 35 52 30 37 24 32 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 8 CX,CY: -4/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 504 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 28.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. -0. -4. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 13. 12. 7. 6. 5. 3. -0. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 7. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 21. 23. 23. 24. 27. 28. 27. 29. 30. 30. 29. 29. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.5 87.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 2.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 58.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.39 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.45 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.61 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 38.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 112.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.75 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 121.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.70 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 2.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.4% 25.0% 15.2% 10.2% 9.2% 11.7% 13.9% 19.6% Logistic: 4.3% 16.0% 5.4% 1.2% 0.4% 1.4% 1.9% 2.5% Bayesian: 2.7% 3.9% 1.0% 0.5% 0.2% 1.0% 0.4% 0.1% Consensus: 4.5% 14.9% 7.2% 4.0% 3.3% 4.7% 5.4% 7.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/05/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 35 39 44 48 53 55 55 47 50 50 50 52 53 52 52 52 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 42 47 49 49 41 44 44 44 46 47 46 46 46 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 35 40 42 42 34 37 37 37 39 40 39 39 39 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 24 29 31 31 23 26 26 26 28 29 28 28 28 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT