* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/05/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 36 42 45 44 45 50 53 54 58 59 63 68 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 35 39 46 48 48 42 46 50 51 54 56 59 64 V (KT) LGEM 25 26 29 29 31 33 34 31 27 28 26 26 27 30 37 46 56 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 5 11 13 18 23 28 31 33 21 7 6 0 5 6 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 5 11 11 9 5 0 3 1 1 -1 -1 -1 3 SHEAR DIR 132 151 237 224 248 230 244 260 273 265 260 272 358 22 264 260 312 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.1 28.2 26.3 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.9 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 153 155 155 155 156 151 137 115 127 127 127 132 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 144 141 142 145 146 146 146 143 133 119 101 110 107 107 113 122 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 4 4 3 4 6 4 5 5 6 5 6 7 7 7 8 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 83 81 81 79 75 74 66 63 58 55 54 60 62 60 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 12 13 14 17 21 22 20 21 24 23 22 22 22 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 160 148 121 120 127 133 115 146 138 164 155 157 122 122 83 71 45 200 MB DIV 116 106 110 115 125 103 80 49 27 30 0 0 -10 11 14 11 -3 700-850 TADV 6 2 1 5 6 2 5 11 11 3 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 LAND (KM) -122 -46 10 58 85 193 289 193 0 46 129 63 157 202 191 200 246 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 15.3 15.8 16.4 17.0 18.1 19.2 20.4 22.0 23.2 24.1 24.6 24.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.0 88.4 87.9 87.4 85.8 84.2 82.2 80.6 79.8 80.0 81.0 82.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 8 9 9 10 11 9 6 4 6 5 1 1 3 5 HEAT CONTENT 35 36 37 44 66 81 72 80 47 36 24 3 23 23 25 33 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 0. 3. 8. 16. 21. 26. 29. 32. 34. 35. 36. 36. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 3. -2. -7. -11. -11. -11. -9. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 8. 7. 8. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 20. 19. 20. 25. 28. 29. 33. 34. 38. 43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 14.7 87.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.76 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 43.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.29 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.07 0.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.59 1.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 2.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.67 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 21.2% 14.7% 10.1% 0.0% 0.0% 13.2% 0.0% Logistic: 2.7% 16.6% 5.2% 1.4% 0.6% 2.7% 3.5% 3.8% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 13.3% 6.8% 3.8% 0.2% 0.9% 5.6% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/05/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 26 29 32 35 39 46 48 48 42 46 50 51 54 56 59 64 18HR AGO 25 24 27 30 33 37 44 46 46 40 44 48 49 52 54 57 62 12HR AGO 25 22 21 24 27 31 38 40 40 34 38 42 43 46 48 51 56 6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 18 22 29 31 31 25 29 33 34 37 39 42 47 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT