* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/05/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 31 34 43 47 56 57 60 65 68 66 67 66 66 70 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 31 34 42 47 56 56 50 52 56 54 55 54 54 57 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 32 36 41 42 40 35 36 35 35 37 43 49 55 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 3 3 10 8 11 18 32 28 26 6 7 6 4 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 1 0 14 15 16 4 6 3 0 2 0 10 5 15 SHEAR DIR 90 96 58 237 234 244 239 249 269 270 257 291 18 9 303 304 319 SST (C) 29.5 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 28.6 27.1 28.2 28.1 28.0 28.1 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 159 153 153 150 150 153 155 156 156 156 143 124 138 135 133 136 131 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 147 144 141 141 144 147 146 144 142 126 108 122 116 113 118 116 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.2 -52.2 -52.0 -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 4 4 4 6 5 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 6 700-500 MB RH 84 83 82 84 81 79 79 75 71 66 62 55 48 45 43 39 30 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 12 12 13 18 21 27 26 28 31 30 27 26 24 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 172 164 148 125 125 137 113 118 151 160 174 180 158 128 98 57 37 200 MB DIV 136 125 111 120 120 125 84 91 36 64 28 28 20 12 -1 -4 -42 700-850 TADV 4 4 -1 2 4 5 7 9 13 10 13 1 1 0 -1 0 -3 LAND (KM) -168 -123 -46 3 56 171 278 289 149 -22 92 84 136 187 246 293 351 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.2 15.8 16.4 17.3 18.4 19.5 20.7 22.2 23.7 24.4 24.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.7 87.4 88.1 87.8 87.5 86.4 84.9 82.9 81.6 80.5 79.9 80.6 82.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 6 7 7 8 10 9 9 9 6 6 7 4 3 5 8 HEAT CONTENT 6 37 38 40 50 73 74 78 82 46 31 10 39 40 33 42 16 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 33. 33. 33. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 4. -0. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -7. -7. -6. -6. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -2. -2. 2. 4. 12. 11. 13. 17. 15. 9. 7. 3. 1. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 1. 4. 13. 17. 26. 27. 30. 35. 38. 36. 37. 36. 36. 40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.2 86.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 2.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 34.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.23 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.77 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.54 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 122.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.71 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 4.7% 21.0% 14.6% 10.2% 9.6% 12.7% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 2.0% 16.2% 4.4% 1.5% 0.9% 3.5% 3.7% 4.5% Bayesian: 0.4% 3.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.4% 13.4% 6.4% 4.0% 3.5% 5.5% 6.1% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/05/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 31 34 42 47 56 56 50 52 56 54 55 54 54 57 18HR AGO 30 29 28 31 34 42 47 56 56 50 52 56 54 55 54 54 57 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 40 45 54 54 48 50 54 52 53 52 52 55 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 31 36 45 45 39 41 45 43 44 43 43 46 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT