* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/05/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 27 28 35 40 45 48 49 53 56 57 55 57 58 60 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 30 37 42 47 50 45 49 52 53 51 52 54 55 V (KT) LGEM 30 29 28 27 27 33 37 37 35 32 30 27 24 23 25 28 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 7 8 7 0 12 18 22 33 40 35 23 18 12 0 13 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 2 1 3 8 11 14 8 4 6 9 1 -1 0 6 9 SHEAR DIR 86 87 61 108 273 256 237 263 263 275 286 295 312 332 260 269 269 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.8 26.6 26.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.3 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 159 157 152 150 152 153 155 158 156 148 118 117 131 130 129 125 120 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 151 144 142 143 144 148 152 145 133 103 102 115 112 110 107 103 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.4 -52.0 -52.2 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.3 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.7 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 4 4 4 6 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 85 83 83 83 80 77 73 71 62 61 55 42 38 40 38 32 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 16 14 13 13 15 17 20 21 22 26 27 26 24 23 24 24 850 MB ENV VOR 167 172 162 151 118 120 135 104 151 158 165 156 145 96 70 42 61 200 MB DIV 166 157 134 115 99 108 117 77 72 10 -9 -9 0 11 0 -8 -19 700-850 TADV 1 4 2 2 1 8 1 8 13 12 14 -1 -3 0 0 0 -1 LAND (KM) -198 -157 -129 -64 12 85 191 250 62 33 61 51 161 258 302 311 246 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 15.2 15.8 17.2 18.2 19.6 21.5 23.3 24.6 25.4 25.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 86.0 86.6 87.3 87.6 88.0 87.4 85.8 83.7 81.6 80.5 80.7 81.7 83.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 8 11 13 11 8 6 6 7 5 5 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 34 37 39 67 79 78 74 37 3 10 21 25 29 17 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 562 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 32. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 3. -4. -9. -12. -13. -14. -13. -12. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -5. -7. -7. -7. -4. -3. -3. -3. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -5. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 7. 8. 6. 1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -2. 5. 10. 15. 18. 19. 23. 26. 27. 25. 27. 28. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.0 86.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.36 2.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 2.4 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.16 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.79 2.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.52 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 24.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.92 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.76 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.2% 17.8% 12.4% 8.5% 8.1% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.3% 13.2% 3.1% 1.9% 1.8% 5.0% 5.7% 4.4% Bayesian: 0.7% 17.7% 2.7% 0.6% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.4% 16.2% 6.1% 3.7% 3.4% 5.5% 1.9% 1.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/05/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/05/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 29 28 27 30 37 42 47 50 45 49 52 53 51 52 54 55 18HR AGO 30 29 28 27 30 37 42 47 50 45 49 52 53 51 52 54 55 12HR AGO 30 27 26 25 28 35 40 45 48 43 47 50 51 49 50 52 53 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 30 35 40 43 38 42 45 46 44 45 47 48 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT