* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/04/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 32 32 33 38 43 47 54 56 58 65 69 64 59 58 61 V (KT) LAND 40 34 31 29 28 35 40 44 51 47 47 53 57 52 47 47 49 V (KT) LGEM 40 34 31 29 28 33 37 41 42 39 35 33 31 29 29 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 10 9 6 8 9 14 31 39 38 25 14 17 11 9 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 4 0 0 0 16 13 13 5 -2 4 -1 0 0 3 6 SHEAR DIR 73 77 103 59 55 224 274 239 259 262 265 268 326 1 21 310 260 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.7 26.7 27.5 27.7 27.6 27.4 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 160 157 157 151 154 150 153 156 156 151 145 119 128 131 130 127 123 ADJ. POT. INT. 154 152 151 144 145 139 146 150 147 138 128 104 112 113 112 110 106 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.4 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 4 3 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 5 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 84 84 84 82 83 81 77 74 71 63 56 47 43 40 40 38 33 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 18 16 14 13 13 16 18 24 24 26 29 30 26 23 22 22 850 MB ENV VOR 151 177 179 159 135 115 137 124 136 154 169 155 163 133 92 47 39 200 MB DIV 147 154 149 115 93 100 130 93 76 41 35 55 8 -13 8 10 4 700-850 TADV 0 0 6 2 -1 1 8 7 15 19 25 9 2 1 -2 3 3 LAND (KM) -195 -187 -146 -105 -39 5 115 258 178 -13 65 63 112 183 259 341 267 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.3 16.5 17.4 18.6 20.5 22.2 23.6 24.6 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 85.3 86.0 86.7 87.3 88.0 88.4 87.1 85.1 83.2 81.7 80.9 81.1 82.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 8 7 6 10 12 12 9 6 5 6 6 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 6 9 8 37 38 41 77 74 80 64 47 7 24 19 25 19 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 25. 24. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. -1. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -7. -9. -10. -9. -6. -4. -5. -4. -2. -1. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -6. -5. 1. 0. 2. 5. 6. 0. -4. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -8. -7. -2. 3. 7. 14. 16. 18. 25. 29. 24. 19. 18. 21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 85.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.76 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.46 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 27.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 1.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.73 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.75 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 1.7% 14.7% 10.1% 7.3% 7.1% 11.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 4.3% 0.9% 0.6% 0.7% 2.4% 4.1% 2.7% Bayesian: 0.6% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.4% 0.4% 1.0% Consensus: 0.9% 7.1% 3.8% 2.7% 2.6% 4.6% 1.5% 1.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/04/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 40 34 31 29 28 35 40 44 51 47 47 53 57 52 47 47 49 18HR AGO 40 39 36 34 33 40 45 49 56 52 52 58 62 57 52 52 54 12HR AGO 40 37 36 34 33 40 45 49 56 52 52 58 62 57 52 52 54 6HR AGO 40 34 31 30 29 36 41 45 52 48 48 54 58 53 48 48 50 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT