* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/04/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 41 38 37 38 42 43 44 44 44 42 44 45 45 44 44 47 V (KT) LAND 50 40 34 31 29 28 31 32 32 32 31 33 33 34 33 33 35 V (KT) LGEM 50 39 34 31 29 28 28 32 32 30 28 23 20 19 19 20 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 14 5 8 9 12 12 18 27 38 48 33 22 16 16 11 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 0 5 6 2 0 4 7 7 4 -4 1 -1 1 0 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 64 69 90 94 89 170 222 228 234 244 256 255 294 319 324 321 310 SST (C) 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.0 26.8 27.0 27.7 27.7 27.5 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 160 159 158 153 152 153 151 157 158 152 151 120 122 131 131 127 125 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 152 152 148 146 142 142 152 152 142 135 104 106 114 113 108 106 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -51.8 -51.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.0 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 5 6 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 83 83 82 82 80 83 79 76 73 71 60 53 46 41 38 41 42 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 20 18 16 14 13 12 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 134 144 162 160 141 113 112 129 102 152 149 159 146 123 75 53 2 200 MB DIV 128 153 157 136 100 79 89 110 71 72 39 -13 -20 -23 -31 -9 -8 700-850 TADV 1 -1 8 5 5 4 1 2 -1 -2 1 1 6 -12 -18 -9 -13 LAND (KM) -151 -204 -175 -122 -78 0 0 108 222 83 28 64 74 152 261 329 356 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.0 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.9 17.0 18.2 19.8 21.6 23.4 24.6 25.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 84.9 85.5 86.1 87.0 87.8 88.8 88.2 86.6 84.2 82.4 81.3 81.2 81.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 8 9 8 5 8 12 13 11 8 5 5 7 6 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 13 34 37 41 44 88 79 75 68 10 17 21 25 23 17 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 16. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -2. -8. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -9. -13. -14. -13. -8. -6. -6. -6. -2. -1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -10. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -5. -7. -10. -14. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. -21. -21. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -9. -12. -13. -12. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -8. -6. -5. -5. -6. -6. -3. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 13.8 84.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.05 0.3 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.73 1.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.69 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 0.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 0.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 46.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 100.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 134.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.76 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 5% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.4% 7.8% 7.2% 4.8% 10.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 1.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.8% 2.0% 1.2% Bayesian: 0.6% 4.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1% 1.3% 12.9% 34.2% Consensus: 0.3% 5.7% 2.9% 2.5% 1.7% 4.1% 5.0% 11.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/04/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 40 34 31 29 28 31 32 32 32 31 33 33 34 33 33 35 18HR AGO 50 49 43 40 38 37 40 41 41 41 40 42 42 43 42 42 44 12HR AGO 50 47 46 43 41 40 43 44 44 44 43 45 45 46 45 45 47 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 38 37 40 41 41 41 40 42 42 43 42 42 44 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT