* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/04/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 89 87 87 87 86 80 75 77 79 84 86 87 81 77 75 74 V (KT) LAND 95 69 51 40 34 29 30 25 27 29 34 34 35 29 25 23 21 V (KT) LGEM 95 68 50 39 34 29 31 38 45 50 51 46 43 39 38 39 40 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 14 17 14 7 7 9 16 18 25 27 28 21 20 15 16 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -4 -3 2 1 -1 2 6 10 9 1 0 1 1 3 0 SHEAR DIR 69 61 46 47 64 82 146 225 257 270 255 248 264 311 353 347 277 SST (C) 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 28.9 28.0 27.4 27.9 27.8 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 160 162 162 158 156 155 154 150 155 159 157 150 135 126 134 133 127 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 154 155 152 151 148 143 138 147 156 150 136 118 109 116 116 112 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -52.4 -52.2 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.7 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 3 5 4 5 6 6 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 82 84 83 83 83 78 83 79 77 73 69 57 55 54 57 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 25 22 20 18 15 13 13 16 19 23 24 26 22 20 19 18 850 MB ENV VOR 122 125 136 145 161 145 122 126 140 128 163 165 177 149 143 87 67 200 MB DIV 152 137 129 144 155 100 90 120 117 94 77 49 23 -9 -11 -21 6 700-850 TADV 2 0 -2 -3 2 0 1 2 6 4 17 14 17 -2 0 7 4 LAND (KM) -22 -81 -140 -187 -151 -60 5 10 115 274 108 22 61 11 82 156 234 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.8 17.4 18.9 21.2 23.2 24.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.3 84.8 85.5 86.3 88.0 88.7 88.2 87.1 84.9 82.2 80.6 80.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 6 8 8 7 5 5 9 15 14 9 6 4 6 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 40 20 8 7 27 39 41 45 68 75 89 40 20 15 33 17 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 125 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. -1. -6. -9. -12. -14. -15. -18. -22. -26. -28. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -7. -7. -5. -3. -1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -6. -7. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 2. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -3. -5. -7. -12. -17. -20. -19. -16. -12. -12. -9. -14. -17. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -15. -20. -18. -16. -11. -9. -8. -14. -18. -20. -21. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 13.8 83.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -30.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.24 1.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 1.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 20.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.13 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.84 2.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.55 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 55.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 57.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.27 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 143.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.80 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 2% is 0.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 2.3% 12.5% 9.6% 7.3% 6.9% 9.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.2% 6.1% 1.6% 1.8% 4.0% 2.7% 3.0% 1.4% Bayesian: 4.1% 4.3% 0.6% 0.4% 0.3% 0.6% 0.1% 2.4% Consensus: 2.5% 7.6% 4.0% 3.2% 3.7% 4.2% 1.1% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/04/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/04/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 95 69 51 40 34 29 30 25 27 29 34 34 35 29 25 23 21 18HR AGO 95 94 76 65 59 54 55 50 52 54 59 59 60 54 50 48 46 12HR AGO 95 92 91 80 74 69 70 65 67 69 74 74 75 69 65 63 61 6HR AGO 95 89 86 85 79 74 75 70 72 74 79 79 80 74 70 68 66 NOW 95 86 80 77 76 71 72 67 69 71 76 76 77 71 67 65 63 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT