* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/03/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 120 117 114 112 109 105 96 91 89 90 92 94 99 92 84 79 74 V (KT) LAND 120 93 69 51 41 31 28 27 30 31 33 35 40 33 25 20 18 V (KT) LGEM 120 96 70 51 40 31 28 27 34 43 48 49 48 42 36 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 14 16 13 5 8 11 10 16 24 29 25 22 17 21 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -3 -7 -3 4 -1 -1 7 8 8 -1 -3 0 3 8 3 SHEAR DIR 74 75 65 53 54 143 73 179 219 233 251 236 227 254 298 314 321 SST (C) 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.5 29.2 29.5 29.6 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.0 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 155 159 162 163 159 154 158 158 151 153 157 157 157 157 150 149 150 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 150 155 157 154 148 148 145 141 145 151 148 143 138 133 132 134 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.1 -52.8 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2 0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 5 5 7 6 8 7 7 6 6 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 82 83 80 76 80 75 69 62 56 52 51 45 44 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 24 22 19 17 13 13 16 21 25 27 31 27 20 14 11 850 MB ENV VOR 119 123 120 127 134 152 126 121 124 140 162 180 183 146 117 66 41 200 MB DIV 180 165 125 122 150 115 105 100 105 64 47 23 65 34 13 6 8 700-850 TADV 1 2 1 -1 -4 3 0 1 0 1 1 2 5 7 7 4 1 LAND (KM) 22 -22 -65 -140 -193 -124 -60 -39 32 106 231 258 148 67 25 4 66 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 13.7 13.7 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.1 17.0 18.3 19.6 20.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.3 83.7 84.1 84.8 85.5 87.1 88.4 89.0 88.4 87.2 85.4 83.4 81.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 7 8 8 5 2 6 9 11 11 7 3 5 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 42 40 37 8 5 35 41 46 41 62 75 83 89 69 74 73 101 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 568 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. -2. -9. -19. -26. -33. -37. -40. -43. -47. -50. -53. -53. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -10. -6. -2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 13. 16. 16. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -10. -18. -21. -20. -14. -10. -8. -3. -10. -18. -24. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -8. -11. -15. -24. -29. -31. -30. -28. -26. -21. -28. -36. -41. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 120. LAT, LON: 13.7 83.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.57 1.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 26.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.17 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 120.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.23 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 61.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 32.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.04 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 148.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.83 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.0% 15.6% 12.3% 8.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 4.0% 10.8% 3.3% 2.9% 4.8% 3.4% 3.4% 1.2% Bayesian: 1.5% 3.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 10.0% 5.3% 3.9% 1.6% 1.1% 1.1% 0.4% DTOPS: 0.0% 74.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 13.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/03/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 33 0( 33) 0( 33) 0( 33) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 83 0( 83) 0( 83) 0( 83) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 120 93 69 51 41 31 28 27 30 31 33 35 40 33 25 20 18 18HR AGO 120 119 95 77 67 57 54 53 56 57 59 61 66 59 51 46 44 12HR AGO 120 117 116 98 88 78 75 74 77 78 80 82 87 80 72 67 65 6HR AGO 120 114 111 110 100 90 87 86 89 90 92 94 99 92 84 79 77 NOW 120 111 105 102 101 91 88 87 90 91 93 95 100 93 85 80 78 IN 6HR 120 93 84 78 75 70 67 66 69 70 72 74 79 72 64 59 57 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT