* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/03/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 125 122 119 116 112 108 100 91 87 84 88 91 87 89 90 93 89 V (KT) LAND 125 122 92 67 50 34 29 27 27 27 34 37 33 35 36 39 32 V (KT) LGEM 125 120 92 67 49 33 29 27 27 27 36 39 40 41 41 43 38 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 16 16 14 13 6 7 13 6 12 14 17 28 22 11 14 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -1 -3 -5 2 4 -2 1 3 4 9 0 -1 0 -6 -2 SHEAR DIR 94 76 80 75 58 88 98 133 228 242 273 267 259 257 288 289 278 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.6 29.4 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.3 29.1 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 159 164 164 163 155 159 155 150 155 158 158 154 154 155 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 145 151 158 159 159 148 149 143 140 148 154 148 135 136 139 138 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.6 -52.0 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -52.9 -53.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.8 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 3 3 5 5 7 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 81 81 81 83 83 83 77 83 79 76 67 64 61 57 49 57 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 27 25 22 20 17 15 12 12 14 20 23 20 22 22 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 124 115 114 114 120 152 127 111 103 115 123 146 154 188 187 188 143 200 MB DIV 182 173 153 117 97 133 67 95 96 85 68 53 25 55 34 -6 5 700-850 TADV 4 1 1 1 -1 2 4 4 0 1 1 4 11 6 1 -5 -3 LAND (KM) 43 11 -22 -92 -162 -185 -123 -84 -15 -5 138 247 290 201 196 122 -41 LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.1 15.9 16.5 17.1 18.1 19.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.4 83.7 84.3 85.0 86.4 88.1 88.9 89.1 88.5 86.9 84.7 82.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 6 7 8 6 4 4 6 10 13 9 2 3 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 39 45 40 20 5 5 24 45 46 42 67 70 91 90 91 90 57 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):225/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 130 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 1. 1. -3. -10. -20. -28. -37. -42. -44. -47. -51. -55. -57. -57. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -7. -10. -12. -12. -7. -3. 2. 6. 9. 11. 13. 16. 19. 19. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -2. -4. -7. -11. -16. -22. -26. -24. -18. -14. -18. -15. -15. -13. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -3. -6. -9. -13. -17. -25. -34. -38. -41. -37. -34. -38. -36. -35. -32. -36. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 125. LAT, LON: 13.6 83.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.56 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 29.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 125.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.16 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.37 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 77.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.86 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 26.6 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 144.4 -29.7 to 185.9 0.81 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.4 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.2% 15.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.2% 10.3% 3.2% 3.6% 6.1% 4.1% 4.4% 1.4% Bayesian: 2.2% 1.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.5% 9.1% 1.2% 1.2% 2.0% 1.4% 1.5% 0.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 80.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 30.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/03/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 38 0( 38) 0( 38) 0( 38) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 75 0( 75) 0( 75) 0( 75) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 125 122 92 67 50 34 29 27 27 27 34 37 33 35 36 39 32 18HR AGO 125 124 94 69 52 36 31 29 29 29 36 39 35 37 38 41 34 12HR AGO 125 122 121 96 79 63 58 56 56 56 63 66 62 64 65 68 61 6HR AGO 125 119 116 115 98 82 77 75 75 75 82 85 81 83 84 87 80 NOW 125 116 110 107 106 90 85 83 83 83 90 93 89 91 92 95 88 IN 6HR 125 122 113 107 104 97 92 90 90 90 97 100 96 98 99 102 95 IN 12HR 125 122 92 83 77 73 68 66 66 66 73 76 72 74 75 78 71