* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/03/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 131 129 124 119 110 104 94 86 79 74 72 74 77 80 83 83 V (KT) LAND 130 131 108 80 58 37 30 28 27 22 18 16 17 21 24 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 130 130 109 80 57 36 30 28 27 35 39 41 43 45 49 56 64 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 12 15 15 13 12 6 12 12 8 12 13 13 10 5 2 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -2 -2 -1 -4 2 1 1 8 6 1 -2 -6 0 -3 -3 SHEAR DIR 109 99 85 79 79 52 114 122 166 228 220 214 201 180 171 349 299 SST (C) 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.2 29.5 29.4 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 157 161 163 161 154 158 155 149 152 154 155 156 155 157 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 144 148 152 155 154 146 149 143 137 141 143 143 142 140 142 142 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.0 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.2 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 4 5 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 5 7 6 8 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 81 82 80 81 82 82 79 76 82 78 74 67 61 56 57 59 68 MODEL VTX (KT) 28 28 27 24 22 18 16 12 12 12 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 120 120 114 116 109 125 141 118 110 105 117 130 146 175 183 175 146 200 MB DIV 153 168 145 131 111 111 120 80 79 110 64 52 44 52 57 74 65 700-850 TADV 2 4 1 2 1 -2 4 3 2 1 2 0 -6 -8 -11 0 5 LAND (KM) 39 15 -8 -49 -97 -193 -123 -57 -5 14 96 186 260 301 340 382 308 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.0 14.0 14.0 13.9 14.1 14.6 15.1 15.8 16.5 17.1 17.7 18.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.9 83.2 83.5 84.0 84.4 85.5 87.0 88.3 88.7 88.3 87.3 86.0 84.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 5 7 7 5 3 4 6 7 6 5 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 38 37 37 12 5 34 40 40 39 59 78 76 70 78 102 114 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 577 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -0. -0. -1. -5. -14. -25. -34. -43. -49. -53. -56. -60. -63. -65. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -6. -9. -11. -13. -8. -3. 0. 5. 9. 12. 15. 18. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -0. -2. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -5. -10. -14. -22. -24. -26. -25. -26. -26. -25. -25. -24. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. -1. -6. -11. -20. -26. -36. -44. -51. -56. -58. -56. -53. -50. -47. -47. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.0 82.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 32.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.21 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.93 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 103.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 18.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 141.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.79 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 15.7% 19.4% 7.1% 7.1% 7.4% 7.0% 9.1% 3.5% Bayesian: 18.1% 23.3% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% Consensus: 11.2% 14.2% 4.3% 2.5% 2.5% 2.4% 3.1% 1.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 48.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 31.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/03/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 0( 43) 0( 43) 0( 43) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 87 0( 87) 0( 87) 0( 87) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 131 108 80 58 37 30 28 27 22 18 16 17 21 24 27 27 18HR AGO 130 129 106 78 56 35 28 26 25 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 130 127 126 98 76 55 48 46 45 40 36 34 35 39 42 45 45 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 98 77 70 68 67 62 58 56 57 61 64 67 67 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 90 83 81 80 75 71 69 70 74 77 80 80 IN 6HR 130 131 122 116 113 105 98 96 95 90 86 84 85 89 92 95 95 IN 12HR 130 131 108 99 93 89 82 80 79 74 70 68 69 73 76 79 79