* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/03/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 130 135 132 126 118 109 100 93 82 71 62 59 62 65 68 70 70 V (KT) LAND 130 135 132 98 74 43 32 28 26 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 130 136 132 100 75 42 31 28 32 35 38 40 42 44 46 49 51 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 14 12 14 14 14 10 6 9 14 15 13 13 15 14 16 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 2 2 2 -1 4 4 3 0 0 0 4 0 -1 -5 -4 SHEAR DIR 126 111 91 84 86 65 116 133 141 194 222 244 254 247 260 292 269 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.3 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 155 157 161 162 156 152 152 149 151 153 153 155 156 157 157 ADJ. POT. INT. 145 143 145 147 151 153 149 145 140 137 140 142 141 142 142 140 140 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -53.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 5 5 3 3 3 4 4 6 5 8 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 83 82 82 81 81 81 83 76 80 77 77 69 63 58 63 58 53 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 27 26 25 22 19 15 13 11 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 118 121 116 114 115 114 146 130 119 110 115 111 119 115 145 158 160 200 MB DIV 151 154 177 158 155 105 120 59 62 80 93 63 60 31 50 31 14 700-850 TADV 6 5 4 1 2 0 10 6 5 0 -1 -1 -2 -8 -8 -9 -15 LAND (KM) 75 38 8 -15 -45 -142 -155 -81 15 14 85 164 240 311 330 381 328 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.2 14.1 14.1 14.0 14.1 14.4 15.1 15.9 16.5 17.0 17.6 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.5 82.8 83.2 83.5 83.9 84.8 85.9 87.5 88.5 88.3 87.4 86.3 85.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 4 5 7 7 4 4 5 6 6 6 5 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 37 39 36 35 37 6 37 36 39 39 56 78 80 74 77 101 105 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):240/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -1. -2. -6. -15. -26. -35. -44. -50. -54. -58. -61. -64. -66. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -12. -14. -10. -4. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 18. 21. 21. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 7. 7. 4. 2. 0. 2. 3. 0. -1. -5. -8. -5. -3. -2. -3. -4. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -8. -15. -20. -25. -31. -32. -33. -33. -32. -31. -30. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 2. -4. -11. -21. -30. -37. -48. -59. -68. -71. -68. -65. -62. -60. -60. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 130. LAT, LON: 14.3 82.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 40.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 30.1 to 2.3 0.60 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 130.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.10 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.38 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 90.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 159.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.88 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 37.3% 44.2% 19.6% 21.8% 16.6% 21.0% 20.6% 11.5% Bayesian: 6.8% 2.4% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.7% 15.5% 6.8% 7.3% 5.5% 7.0% 6.9% 3.8% DTOPS: 0.0% 15.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/03/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/03/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 43 45( 69) 0( 69) 0( 69) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 74 91( 98) 0( 98) 0( 98) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 130 135 132 98 74 43 32 28 26 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 130 129 126 92 68 37 26 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 130 127 126 92 68 37 26 22 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 130 124 121 120 96 65 54 50 48 37 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 NOW 130 121 115 112 111 80 69 65 63 52 37 37 37 37 37 37 37 IN 6HR 130 135 126 120 117 104 93 89 87 76 61 61 61 61 61 61 61 IN 12HR 130 135 132 123 117 113 102 98 96 85 70 70 70 70 70 70 70