* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/02/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 123 123 119 114 106 99 97 90 83 77 73 76 79 83 86 87 V (KT) LAND 115 123 123 104 84 50 34 29 27 27 25 22 24 28 31 35 36 V (KT) LGEM 115 126 128 122 88 51 34 29 27 27 33 38 41 45 50 57 65 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 16 14 15 15 13 12 5 2 11 9 14 8 5 5 11 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 0 1 0 0 -1 5 4 -1 1 1 2 3 5 7 2 SHEAR DIR 139 135 122 98 87 78 43 109 104 159 179 218 251 256 308 355 9 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 155 155 156 155 157 163 162 155 154 152 149 153 153 153 154 155 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 148 147 146 143 145 154 156 147 143 141 138 141 141 141 140 137 136 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.4 -52.1 -52.5 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.7 -53.1 -53.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 4 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 6 5 8 7 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 84 84 81 81 80 83 83 81 82 83 75 70 60 50 42 46 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 26 26 24 20 17 16 13 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 107 120 125 125 115 113 127 150 127 114 112 106 90 124 166 174 150 200 MB DIV 122 152 163 168 156 115 94 81 75 102 116 68 36 32 26 14 1 700-850 TADV 4 7 5 4 2 0 -2 2 3 2 0 0 -2 -5 -5 2 7 LAND (KM) 129 70 11 0 -8 -75 -194 -136 -103 -29 49 128 148 235 278 258 280 LAT (DEG N) 14.7 14.5 14.2 14.1 14.0 13.9 14.0 14.5 14.8 15.4 16.3 17.1 17.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 82.0 82.6 83.1 83.3 83.5 84.2 85.3 86.6 87.7 88.0 87.7 87.0 86.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 4 2 2 4 6 6 4 4 5 5 6 6 5 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 37 38 36 35 37 30 4 23 37 37 43 65 82 80 85 91 89 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 5.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 1. -2. -8. -16. -22. -29. -34. -36. -40. -42. -45. -47. -48. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -8. -10. -12. -10. -4. 2. 5. 9. 11. 14. 17. 20. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 8. 8. 6. 4. 1. 3. 4. 1. -0. -5. -7. -4. -2. -0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -2. -5. -11. -14. -20. -23. -24. -25. -25. -25. -24. -23. -22. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 8. 4. -1. -9. -16. -18. -25. -32. -38. -42. -39. -36. -32. -29. -28. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 14.7 82.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 45.0 -49.5 to 33.0 1.00 21.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.58 4.8 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 1.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.91 8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.29 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.44 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 83.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.85 4.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 30.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.03 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 152.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.84 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.5 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 56% is 11.1 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 58% is 5.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 46% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 55.6% 57.7% 46.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 61.7% 73.9% 50.8% 56.8% 46.1% 48.5% 33.3% 26.6% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.9% 1.0% 0.3% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 39.1% 44.5% 32.8% 19.0% 15.5% 16.2% 11.1% 8.9% DTOPS: 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/02/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 31 35( 55) 0( 55) 0( 55) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 96 83( 99) 0( 99) 0( 99) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 115 123 123 104 84 50 34 29 27 27 25 22 24 28 31 35 36 18HR AGO 115 114 114 95 75 41 25 20 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 115 112 111 92 72 38 22 17 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 115 109 106 105 85 51 35 30 28 28 26 23 25 29 32 36 37 NOW 115 106 100 97 96 62 46 41 39 39 37 34 36 40 43 47 48 IN 6HR 115 123 114 108 105 88 72 67 65 65 63 60 62 66 69 73 74 IN 12HR 115 123 123 114 108 104 88 83 81 81 79 76 78 82 85 89 90