* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/02/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 93 97 99 101 99 96 93 91 86 82 82 86 93 101 102 104 V (KT) LAND 85 93 97 99 101 63 39 31 28 27 27 27 32 39 47 48 50 V (KT) LGEM 85 95 101 102 101 65 39 30 28 27 27 27 33 44 56 66 73 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 10 16 15 17 14 13 10 6 5 2 2 6 7 12 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -2 0 0 0 -3 0 2 -1 3 4 2 3 -4 2 4 SHEAR DIR 150 143 129 114 94 93 60 69 85 92 197 305 351 318 293 311 9 SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.2 29.3 29.6 29.6 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 155 155 154 156 161 162 160 153 154 158 158 151 153 155 155 156 ADJ. POT. INT. 147 148 146 144 145 152 154 153 144 143 145 144 141 144 145 141 140 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.7 -53.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 0.7 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 5 3 3 2 3 3 5 4 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 83 84 84 81 81 81 82 81 76 82 81 80 70 65 58 58 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 24 25 27 26 26 23 20 18 16 13 13 14 16 19 25 24 26 850 MB ENV VOR 108 106 115 123 124 116 123 159 148 142 115 116 99 118 135 152 153 200 MB DIV 94 130 146 167 174 148 72 71 78 92 84 78 62 50 40 58 46 700-850 TADV 3 5 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 0 -1 1 1 0 0 0 0 LAND (KM) 226 156 86 43 8 -43 -151 -174 -126 -60 -54 -30 35 117 224 331 311 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 14.6 14.4 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.3 15.6 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 81.1 81.8 82.4 82.8 83.2 83.9 84.9 86.2 87.2 88.0 88.7 88.8 88.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 5 4 4 4 5 6 5 4 2 2 5 8 9 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 39 36 37 39 36 37 7 12 34 38 43 43 38 60 79 77 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 22.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -3. -5. -6. -4. -2. 2. 5. 9. 11. 13. 15. 17. 17. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -6. -10. -14. -19. -21. -20. -18. -13. -6. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 8. 12. 14. 16. 14. 11. 8. 6. 1. -3. -3. 1. 8. 16. 17. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 14.8 81.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 25.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.90 20.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.62 5.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 37.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.25 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 8.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.68 3.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.48 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 56.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.88 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.30 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 142.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.80 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 40% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 66% is 6.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 7.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 39.8% 65.7% 49.1% 35.2% 17.5% 30.7% 25.2% 0.0% Logistic: 40.9% 65.4% 38.7% 41.0% 35.5% 50.9% 41.7% 42.5% Bayesian: 74.0% 86.9% 69.2% 63.9% 39.4% 28.9% 0.7% 16.8% Consensus: 51.6% 72.7% 52.4% 46.7% 30.8% 36.8% 22.5% 19.8% DTOPS: 54.0% 16.0% 6.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/02/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 10 20( 28) 23( 45) 0( 45) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 68 27( 77) 14( 80) 0( 80) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 85 93 97 99 101 63 39 31 28 27 27 27 32 39 47 48 50 18HR AGO 85 84 88 90 92 54 30 22 19 18 18 18 23 30 38 39 41 12HR AGO 85 82 81 83 85 47 23 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 85 79 76 75 77 39 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW 85 76 70 67 66 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS IN 6HR 85 93 84 78 75 56 32 24 21 20 20 20 25 32 40 41 43 IN 12HR 85 93 97 88 82 78 54 46 43 42 42 42 47 54 62 63 65