* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/02/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 72 79 84 88 91 88 83 83 78 73 74 77 82 88 94 95 V (KT) LAND 65 72 79 84 88 62 39 31 28 27 27 27 31 37 42 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 65 72 79 84 87 62 39 30 28 27 27 27 33 40 47 53 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 8 10 15 14 17 16 16 5 6 7 1 7 10 15 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 -1 0 -2 -5 3 1 0 7 7 7 3 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 149 163 137 137 117 85 89 78 112 118 152 267 239 276 279 293 288 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.7 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.7 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 157 156 156 160 164 162 156 158 162 160 151 155 161 165 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 149 149 148 146 150 156 155 148 147 149 147 139 145 152 159 154 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.0 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.3 -52.7 -52.9 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 5 5 8 6 8 6 700-500 MB RH 82 83 84 84 82 82 82 81 78 79 83 78 77 69 64 56 59 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 26 26 23 19 15 14 12 11 13 15 20 23 26 28 850 MB ENV VOR 109 111 106 119 125 123 133 163 156 145 118 123 114 119 139 153 186 200 MB DIV 99 95 111 127 141 172 124 95 89 63 79 74 60 51 33 21 49 700-850 TADV 2 4 5 5 3 3 2 0 3 0 2 0 1 0 1 0 6 LAND (KM) 301 215 129 75 22 -31 -131 -188 -134 -91 -69 -34 46 91 182 327 207 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.1 14.1 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.1 15.5 16.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 80.4 81.2 82.0 82.5 83.0 83.7 84.7 85.9 87.0 88.0 88.6 88.7 88.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 6 5 4 4 5 6 5 4 2 3 4 6 8 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 46 41 39 39 38 37 7 14 22 40 45 44 41 61 82 80 98 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 37.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 12. 12. 12. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -7. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. -1. -6. -12. -14. -19. -22. -20. -17. -11. -7. -4. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 19. 23. 26. 23. 19. 18. 13. 8. 9. 12. 17. 23. 29. 30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 14.9 80.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 17.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.72 6.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 40.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.27 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 8.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 4.5 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.47 2.7 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 48.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.89 5.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.50 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 114.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.67 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 67% is 6.1 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 48% is 7.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 39% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 10.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 44% is 9.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 26% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.9% 66.7% 48.1% 39.1% 27.2% 44.0% 35.7% 26.3% Logistic: 34.6% 61.4% 37.8% 40.3% 34.2% 52.9% 50.4% 65.1% Bayesian: 50.7% 87.9% 69.1% 53.2% 37.1% 53.1% 15.0% 89.5% Consensus: 39.1% 72.0% 51.7% 44.2% 32.8% 50.0% 33.7% 60.3% DTOPS: 34.0% 57.0% 19.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/02/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 7( 9) 11( 19) 0( 19) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 54 61( 82) 21( 86) 0( 86) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 72 79 84 88 62 39 31 28 27 27 27 31 37 42 48 49 18HR AGO 65 64 71 76 80 54 31 23 20 19 19 19 23 29 34 40 41 12HR AGO 65 62 61 66 70 44 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 59 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT