* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/02/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 70 81 91 99 110 111 105 99 90 78 68 67 69 71 75 79 V (KT) LAND 60 70 81 91 99 110 57 36 30 28 27 27 29 31 33 38 41 V (KT) LGEM 60 70 80 89 97 106 57 36 29 28 27 27 30 35 41 48 58 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 5 6 10 14 14 12 13 12 10 13 6 10 7 4 0 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -1 1 2 0 0 1 -3 3 5 5 6 3 1 3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 129 133 137 128 130 75 78 49 43 69 120 136 133 135 213 120 109 SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.3 29.1 29.5 29.7 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 157 156 156 157 156 157 163 163 162 159 159 162 154 151 159 164 165 ADJ. POT. INT. 153 151 150 151 148 148 154 155 154 151 148 150 142 141 150 157 158 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -52.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -52.8 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 5 5 8 7 9 700-500 MB RH 82 82 84 84 84 83 82 81 83 78 84 80 81 74 63 56 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 22 25 27 27 29 27 22 19 16 13 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 108 109 114 116 126 135 137 157 191 168 139 122 133 105 107 128 188 200 MB DIV 121 122 107 123 150 173 151 101 114 80 65 61 65 41 11 9 39 700-850 TADV 0 2 5 4 5 2 1 -3 -3 1 3 1 -1 0 -2 0 -8 LAND (KM) 375 301 204 129 54 0 -75 -183 -185 -154 -95 -64 6 46 161 267 279 LAT (DEG N) 14.9 14.9 14.8 14.6 14.3 14.0 13.9 13.9 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.2 15.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 79.5 80.4 81.3 82.0 82.7 83.4 84.2 85.2 86.2 87.4 88.5 88.7 88.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 7 5 4 4 5 6 6 4 3 4 6 8 10 12 HEAT CONTENT 50 46 40 38 40 36 31 5 5 8 42 45 39 51 77 80 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 71.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 14. 14. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -0. 0. 2. 3. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. -1. -5. -10. -16. -22. -22. -21. -21. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 7. 12. 17. 25. 23. 16. 9. 2. -4. -10. -14. -16. -16. -18. -17. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 10. 21. 31. 39. 50. 51. 45. 39. 30. 18. 8. 7. 9. 11. 15. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 14.9 79.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 19.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 7.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 42.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.28 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.72 7.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 5.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.50 3.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 40.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.90 5.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.56 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 124.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.72 1.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 32% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 75% is 6.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 53% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 40% is 10.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 27% is 11.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 56% is 12.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 8.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 51% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 31.9% 75.2% 53.3% 39.8% 27.5% 55.7% 41.0% 50.6% Logistic: 43.7% 74.1% 53.4% 48.2% 34.6% 46.1% 48.5% 62.2% Bayesian: 66.2% 87.5% 67.4% 43.8% 52.2% 49.8% 19.7% 90.1% Consensus: 47.3% 78.9% 58.0% 43.9% 38.1% 50.5% 36.4% 67.6% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/02/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/02/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 8( 8) 21( 27) 0( 27) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 79( 79) 62( 92) 0( 92) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 70 81 91 99 110 57 36 30 28 27 27 29 31 33 38 41 18HR AGO 60 59 70 80 88 99 46 25 19 17 16 16 18 20 22 27 30 12HR AGO 60 57 56 66 74 85 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 58 69 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT