* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/01/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 59 68 78 87 97 100 94 89 85 77 73 75 76 79 81 81 V (KT) LAND 50 59 68 78 87 97 74 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 50 58 66 74 83 95 73 43 32 28 27 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 2 6 7 7 9 18 20 19 16 9 7 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 0 1 -2 -2 -2 -1 2 4 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 131 164 164 155 138 127 82 74 71 87 90 47 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.8 29.6 29.5 29.3 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 156 156 156 157 156 160 165 163 161 158 153 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 152 151 150 149 147 150 155 154 154 151 141 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.1 -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 6 4 5 4 4 3 4 3 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 82 83 82 85 83 83 84 82 81 80 80 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 17 19 20 21 24 25 24 19 17 16 13 11 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 103 108 105 113 118 129 137 158 181 182 153 128 116 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 99 118 103 101 113 138 164 128 136 108 72 73 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -1 2 5 6 6 3 1 -1 4 2 0 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 331 357 311 226 140 43 -31 -119 -184 -171 -133 -133 -94 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.0 15.1 15.0 14.8 14.4 14.2 13.9 14.0 14.2 14.3 14.5 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.4 79.3 80.3 81.1 81.9 82.8 83.6 84.6 85.2 86.4 87.9 88.7 88.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 9 8 6 5 4 4 4 6 6 2 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 58 52 47 42 39 41 35 11 5 10 5 24 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 66.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 23. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. -1. -5. -7. -12. -15. -14. -14. -14. -14. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -0. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 11. 16. 23. 21. 15. 8. 2. -4. -9. -13. -15. -15. -16. -16. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 9. 18. 28. 37. 47. 50. 44. 39. 35. 27. 23. 25. 26. 29. 31. 31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 14.9 78.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 17.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.86 7.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 47.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.31 2.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.86 8.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 3.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 2.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 5.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 101.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.66 1.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.63 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.6 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 29% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 73% is 6.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 7.4 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 38% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 10.5 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 53% is 11.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 41% is 9.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 43% is 8.3 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 28.6% 72.6% 51.0% 37.8% 26.2% 53.4% 41.5% 42.9% Logistic: 41.4% 78.1% 60.9% 57.0% 44.4% 63.2% 63.0% 73.5% Bayesian: 52.1% 90.2% 80.1% 63.7% 47.3% 59.4% 24.1% 92.8% Consensus: 40.7% 80.3% 64.0% 52.8% 39.3% 58.6% 42.9% 69.7% DTOPS: 7.0% 96.0% 71.0% 33.0% 0.0% 16.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/01/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 10( 13) 20( 30) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 55( 55) 84( 93) 31( 95) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 59 68 78 87 97 74 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 50 49 58 68 77 87 64 34 22 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 12HR AGO 50 47 46 56 65 75 52 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 49 59 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT