* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ETA AL292020 11/01/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 44 50 57 69 79 84 87 85 83 82 86 88 89 90 90 V (KT) LAND 35 39 44 50 57 69 79 73 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 41 46 50 62 71 77 45 32 28 27 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 5 3 9 9 13 12 21 16 12 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 -3 -3 -2 -1 0 -1 -4 -3 2 3 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 236 236 163 170 168 152 129 78 72 57 76 88 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 30.0 29.9 29.4 29.2 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 156 153 156 159 157 157 156 159 167 165 156 152 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 153 155 152 149 147 150 159 156 147 142 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.4 -52.0 -51.9 -51.7 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 5 6 4 5 4 5 3 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 79 80 81 83 85 85 83 83 80 79 77 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 14 15 17 20 22 22 22 20 19 18 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 94 89 93 100 105 130 139 135 151 172 185 183 167 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 48 58 86 115 126 181 160 211 145 113 69 95 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -3 -1 3 8 3 0 -1 -2 0 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 322 289 272 296 355 161 65 0 -87 -184 -155 -113 -142 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.4 15.1 14.5 14.1 13.6 13.8 14.4 14.7 14.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 75.1 76.4 77.7 78.8 79.9 81.7 82.6 83.3 84.3 85.2 85.9 86.7 87.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 7 5 4 4 4 5 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 84 82 72 58 52 41 41 36 21 5 39 40 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 629 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 42.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 28. 31. 34. 35. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -10. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 10. 11. 7. 5. 3. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 12. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 15. 22. 34. 44. 49. 52. 50. 48. 47. 51. 53. 54. 55. 55. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 15.1 75.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.9 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.46 1.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.44 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.41 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 29.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 2.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.81 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 86.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.54 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 35% is 3.2 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 31% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 50% is 9.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 34.6% 19.6% 11.8% 10.9% 13.3% 30.9% 50.4% Logistic: 9.7% 48.1% 22.5% 10.2% 6.8% 27.5% 53.2% 76.4% Bayesian: 5.1% 57.3% 23.6% 6.6% 4.5% 27.5% 34.7% 90.5% Consensus: 7.6% 46.7% 21.9% 9.5% 7.4% 22.8% 39.6% 72.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 15.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 ETA 11/01/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 ETA 11/01/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 6( 6) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 39 44 50 57 69 79 73 47 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 52 64 74 68 42 28 24 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 44 56 66 60 34 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 32 44 54 48 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT