* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYNIN AL292020 11/01/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 48 56 64 78 87 93 92 86 82 79 80 81 83 84 85 V (KT) LAND 35 41 48 56 64 78 87 93 76 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 45 50 56 70 82 89 80 46 33 28 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 9 6 5 8 10 16 15 17 10 10 6 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -7 -5 -4 -5 -4 -4 -1 0 -1 -2 0 6 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 206 227 231 185 177 163 139 97 81 52 62 93 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 153 156 159 156 157 158 161 167 167 165 159 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 157 152 153 155 150 149 149 152 159 158 155 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.4 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.5 -51.9 -52.2 -51.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 0.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 6 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 78 79 80 83 85 87 85 83 82 82 80 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 13 15 19 21 23 22 19 18 17 17 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 94 90 95 103 120 146 138 141 150 177 186 175 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 49 57 91 119 138 169 210 205 139 97 63 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 -2 -1 0 5 3 1 0 -2 2 8 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 330 331 288 272 296 260 108 46 -11 -108 -205 -176 -169 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 15.1 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.3 14.6 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.7 14.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 73.5 75.0 76.5 77.7 78.9 80.8 82.2 82.9 83.6 84.5 85.5 86.2 86.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 13 12 10 8 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 54 83 82 72 57 47 39 41 44 11 21 6 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 61.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 23. 26. 29. 32. 35. 36. 37. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -10. -11. -11. -9. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 11. 14. 13. 8. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 2. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 6. 10. 15. 21. 19. 14. 7. 2. -3. -8. -11. -13. -13. -15. -14. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 13. 21. 29. 43. 52. 58. 57. 51. 47. 44. 45. 46. 48. 49. 50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 14.9 73.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 TWENTYNIN 11/01/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 12.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.85 5.7 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 69.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.46 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.71 5.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.3 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 30.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 4.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 119.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.82 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 71.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.47 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 51% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 52% is 10.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 15.0% 51.3% 35.5% 18.7% 12.9% 24.4% 35.3% 52.0% Logistic: 8.5% 57.8% 34.1% 19.6% 11.9% 36.5% 53.0% 79.1% Bayesian: 2.1% 34.0% 10.1% 1.4% 1.5% 12.9% 28.8% 88.9% Consensus: 8.6% 47.7% 26.6% 13.2% 8.8% 24.6% 39.0% 73.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 40.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 7.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 TWENTYNIN 11/01/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 TWENTYNIN 11/01/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 6( 6) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 9( 9) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 41 48 56 64 78 87 93 76 45 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 41 49 57 71 80 86 69 38 26 22 20 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 35 32 31 39 47 61 70 76 59 28 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 33 47 56 62 45 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT