* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYNIN AL292020 10/31/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 70 81 89 93 96 97 101 103 104 105 104 V (KT) LAND 30 34 38 43 48 58 70 81 89 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 30 33 36 39 43 51 62 74 84 56 36 29 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 3 7 9 6 6 12 11 11 14 10 14 15 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -6 -6 -5 -5 -3 -5 -1 -6 -5 -5 -2 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 246 202 216 227 184 172 138 127 77 81 77 72 37 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.6 29.9 29.9 29.5 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 157 155 154 157 156 157 157 159 165 165 158 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 155 157 154 152 154 151 149 148 151 156 157 150 153 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.6 -52.1 -52.3 -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 7 7 6 6 4 5 5 5 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 77 80 79 80 82 84 85 82 81 74 74 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 7 8 8 10 11 13 17 20 23 25 26 27 28 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 61 76 85 85 91 102 129 132 122 148 166 199 189 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 43 49 52 77 112 152 160 141 84 97 73 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 0 -1 -2 1 2 1 0 0 0 -2 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 277 334 309 272 255 341 152 75 22 -65 -153 -166 -157 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 72.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 15 13 12 11 9 7 6 4 4 5 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 49 62 82 82 67 53 41 39 46 38 5 31 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 656 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 36.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -0. 2. 8. 15. 20. 24. 28. 31. 34. 38. 39. 41. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -9. -10. -10. -8. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 20. 18. 17. 15. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 8. 11. 10. 7. 4. 1. -2. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 28. 40. 51. 59. 63. 66. 67. 71. 73. 74. 75. 74. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.9 72.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL292020 TWENTYNIN 10/31/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.87 3.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 1.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.59 2.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.20 0.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 31.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.91 2.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.4 27.5 to 139.6 0.86 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 2.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 49% is 9.4 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.4% 28.8% 17.0% 12.3% 11.0% 13.1% 17.1% 48.9% Logistic: 5.8% 45.7% 23.4% 13.0% 9.1% 39.2% 49.8% 81.7% Bayesian: 3.2% 29.5% 7.9% 0.9% 0.4% 17.9% 41.9% 92.8% Consensus: 5.5% 34.7% 16.1% 8.7% 6.8% 23.4% 36.2% 74.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 5.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL292020 TWENTYNIN 10/31/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL292020 TWENTYNIN 10/31/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 34 38 43 48 58 70 81 89 56 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 30 29 33 38 43 53 65 76 84 51 31 25 23 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 30 27 26 31 36 46 58 69 77 44 24 18 16 15 15 15 15 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 25 35 47 58 66 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT