* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/28/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 90 90 87 80 71 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 90 74 55 42 35 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 90 86 56 43 35 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 20 30 40 66 101 124 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 9 12 12 10 0 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 244 250 257 248 248 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 24.6 25.0 22.9 19.4 17.5 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 108 113 100 86 81 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 116 104 110 98 83 79 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.9 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 60 58 56 52 55 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 21 21 21 20 23 22 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 26 87 101 109 63 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 74 112 161 193 108 60 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 32 60 121 106 116 -8 -443 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 129 -22 -258 -390 -295 172 406 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.0 30.5 33.0 35.4 37.8 40.6 42.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.1 89.3 87.4 83.3 79.2 68.5 57.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 30 35 41 42 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 18 CX,CY: 8/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -13. -20. -28. -35. -41. -45. -49. -52. -55. -57. -58. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -9. -17. -35. -57. -62. -67. -68. -69. -70. -70. -70. -72. -76. -83. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. 0. -0. -9. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. -15. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 0. -3. -10. -19. -45. -83. -95.-106.-113.-119.-124.-126.-125.-125.-127.-135. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 90. LAT, LON: 28.0 91.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 34.2 30.1 to 2.3 0.00 0.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.5 36.6 to 2.8 0.89 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 90.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.62 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.8 2.9 to -2.9 0.64 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 418.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.50 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 12.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.74 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.6 100.0 to 0.0 0.80 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 5.0% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 6.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/28/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 12 0( 12) 0( 12) 0( 12) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 90 74 55 42 35 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 90 89 70 57 50 33 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 15 12HR AGO 90 87 86 73 66 49 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 6HR AGO 90 84 81 80 73 56 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 NOW 90 81 75 72 71 54 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 36 IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT