* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/28/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 84 82 79 72 55 29 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 80 84 77 52 41 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 84 70 53 41 35 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 13 21 32 47 78 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 10 10 11 8 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 227 229 226 250 253 248 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.1 26.2 24.1 25.0 23.1 18.0 18.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 128 120 104 113 101 82 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 120 113 100 112 99 80 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.6 -0.2 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 61 61 57 55 56 51 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 21 20 21 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 10 23 47 72 126 75 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 55 86 106 147 185 78 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 20 33 55 115 109 20 -218 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 362 117 3 -240 -443 65 333 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 28.1 30.2 32.8 35.4 39.2 41.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.8 91.0 90.3 87.2 84.2 73.7 61.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 18 22 29 37 41 46 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 8 1 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 15 CX,CY: 0/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -7. -13. -19. -24. -28. -31. -34. -37. -39. -41. -43. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -2. -4. -8. -20. -36. -41. -46. -48. -50. -52. -53. -55. -56. -59. -64. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 2. -1. -8. -25. -51. -60. -68. -76. -82. -87. -90. -91. -91. -93. -98. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 26.0 91.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.84 7.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 24.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.20 0.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 1.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.01 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.81 2.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.75 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.62 1.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 392.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.53 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.01 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 115.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.67 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.4 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 22.3% 20.2% 14.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 10.8% 4.4% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 10.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 14.6% 8.2% 5.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/28/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 7 6( 13) 0( 13) 0( 13) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 80 84 77 52 41 32 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 80 79 72 47 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 80 77 76 51 40 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 80 74 71 70 59 50 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 18 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR 80 84 75 69 66 63 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 31 IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT