* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/28/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 56 57 57 55 48 32 25 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 56 56 57 48 34 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 54 46 33 29 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 1 8 11 16 22 48 90 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 3 4 11 11 6 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 199 224 227 240 240 244 235 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.2 24.3 24.0 18.2 18.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 132 127 120 105 106 83 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 128 122 118 112 100 102 80 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -51.9 -51.5 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 3 0 1 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 62 62 62 57 56 52 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 23 24 24 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 3 13 29 68 166 139 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 49 66 84 103 172 89 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 12 24 42 60 88 8 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 249 416 349 120 -6 -479 -132 286 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.2 24.7 26.1 28.1 30.0 34.9 39.0 41.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.8 91.2 91.7 90.8 89.9 85.2 76.6 64.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 17 21 26 35 43 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 19 34 5 1 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 12 CX,CY: -7/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. -1. -10. -26. -35. -41. -47. -52. -56. -61. -65. -68. -71. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -7. -23. -30. -35. -41. -46. -52. -57. -62. -65. -68. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 23.2 90.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 4.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.66 1.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 11.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.08 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 1.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 1.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.51 1.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 1.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 61.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.30 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.44 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.5 100.0 to 0.0 0.93 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.6 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.8% 17.1% 12.4% 10.2% 9.4% 10.3% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 3.5% 4.3% 1.7% 0.4% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 1.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.2% 4.7% 3.6% 3.2% 3.4% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/28/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/28/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 56 56 57 48 34 29 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 55 54 54 55 46 32 27 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 55 52 51 52 43 29 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 36 22 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT