* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/27/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 61 63 67 68 70 70 63 45 41 36 32 28 24 20 18 N/A V (KT) LAND 60 67 70 73 75 77 45 32 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 63 64 66 67 67 41 31 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 4 4 8 11 17 31 71 125 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -5 0 3 4 9 17 10 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 336 10 182 235 250 251 263 242 244 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.3 28.0 27.7 27.1 24.9 24.6 18.1 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 142 138 134 127 109 110 83 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 137 131 127 124 118 104 108 80 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 5 3 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 64 65 65 62 60 56 54 55 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 21 21 23 22 23 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 31 23 21 9 10 55 138 123 101 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 6 4 39 50 57 95 163 99 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -3 -7 0 6 16 59 143 67 -95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -4 112 227 383 390 14 -405 -66 230 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 22.2 23.0 24.4 25.7 29.3 33.9 38.5 41.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 89.0 89.9 90.8 91.2 91.6 89.9 84.9 75.9 63.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 13 14 16 25 37 46 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 34 19 19 37 8 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. -6. -23. -26. -30. -33. -35. -38. -41. -42. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 3. -15. -19. -24. -28. -32. -36. -40. -42. -45. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 21.3 89.0 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.48 3.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 2.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 23.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.15 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.85 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 1.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.4 2.9 to -2.9 0.43 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 282.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.64 1.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 67.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.36 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.8 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.9% 19.8% 14.7% 12.9% 12.3% 12.9% 10.0% 0.0% Logistic: 7.5% 17.8% 10.5% 6.5% 5.6% 4.2% 0.5% 0.0% Bayesian: 2.8% 5.6% 1.1% 1.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.7% 14.4% 8.8% 6.9% 6.0% 5.7% 3.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 19.0% 52.0% 25.0% 7.0% 5.0% 2.0% 0.0% 6.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/27/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 4( 4) 5( 9) 6( 14) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 67 70 73 75 77 45 32 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 62 65 67 69 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 59 61 63 31 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 52 54 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT