* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/27/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 73 76 77 73 65 53 48 45 41 37 34 32 30 27 V (KT) LAND 65 59 62 65 68 70 54 35 30 25 22 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 51 58 61 64 68 54 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 9 5 3 9 14 28 58 112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -7 -6 1 4 5 8 11 -10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 326 338 20 194 235 247 253 248 249 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 28.6 28.4 28.0 28.0 26.6 24.7 22.6 17.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 154 146 143 138 138 123 109 98 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 136 133 129 127 114 105 96 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.2 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -51.9 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.6 0.2 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 66 64 61 59 53 55 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 22 22 21 21 23 23 20 18 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 30 23 23 17 32 96 122 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 36 4 11 38 57 69 128 159 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 -3 -6 1 12 38 108 133 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) -66 -4 101 243 387 218 -72 -399 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.4 22.1 23.2 24.3 27.2 31.3 36.3 40.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.9 88.8 89.7 90.6 91.5 91.2 88.4 81.9 71.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 14 13 19 30 42 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 37 36 21 18 43 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 17.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. -5. -6. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -4. -18. -20. -22. -24. -25. -27. -28. -30. -31. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -4. -8. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 5. 4. 4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 12. 8. -0. -12. -17. -20. -24. -28. -31. -33. -35. -38. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.6 87.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.80 3.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 31.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.20 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.87 3.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 2.1 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.6 2.9 to -2.9 0.40 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 296.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 1.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 69.2 27.5 to 139.6 0.37 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 5.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.2% 21.0% 18.6% 14.8% 12.5% 13.3% 10.6% 0.0% Logistic: 11.3% 25.8% 15.9% 11.1% 10.3% 10.0% 2.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 3.5% 7.9% 2.9% 1.6% 0.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 7.7% 18.2% 12.5% 9.2% 7.7% 7.8% 4.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 9.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/27/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 4( 7) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 3( 3) 0( 3) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 59 62 65 68 70 54 35 30 25 22 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 65 64 67 70 73 75 59 40 35 30 27 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 65 62 61 64 67 69 53 34 29 24 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 58 60 44 25 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT