* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/27/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 74 79 83 86 88 86 79 69 47 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 70 59 47 54 57 59 56 38 30 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 70 61 47 53 57 65 68 45 32 32 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 5 3 10 16 30 70 123 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -7 -6 0 6 9 15 10 -19 -14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 339 355 24 200 265 237 252 239 224 228 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.7 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.0 27.4 25.8 25.0 21.2 18.0 13.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 156 149 144 138 130 116 111 91 81 74 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 147 141 135 127 119 109 106 87 78 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 -52.0 -51.9 -52.1 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -51.5 -49.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.0 0.7 0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 5 2 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 66 66 66 64 59 56 53 54 59 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 20 20 20 20 18 18 18 21 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 39 33 25 28 24 35 126 154 151 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 39 35 9 17 40 54 74 155 81 68 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 4 5 -2 -7 0 18 38 111 145 -239 -266 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 81 -43 -31 104 238 433 72 -289 -292 74 85 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.9 20.5 21.1 22.1 23.1 25.3 28.5 33.0 36.7 40.2 43.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.6 87.7 88.8 89.8 90.8 91.6 90.5 86.5 80.0 72.2 63.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 12 13 23 30 34 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 69 39 32 21 20 20 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 27.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. -12. -13. -15. -17. -19. -20. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 2. -5. -21. -40. -42. -44. -47. -49. -51. -55. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -2. -3. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -6. -7. -9. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 3. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 16. 18. 16. 9. -1. -23. -42. -47. -52. -55. -58. -61. -66. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 19.9 86.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 10.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.0 30.1 to 2.3 0.83 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 36.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.24 1.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 36.6 to 2.8 0.88 6.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.88 3.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.46 2.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 2.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.39 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.27 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 22% is 4.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 3.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 7.7 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 8.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 21.9% 42.5% 32.7% 30.0% 20.0% 23.5% 13.3% 0.0% Logistic: 23.0% 45.9% 33.7% 25.0% 20.8% 22.7% 9.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 14.7% 51.9% 28.1% 20.9% 8.2% 4.3% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 19.8% 46.8% 31.5% 25.3% 16.3% 16.8% 7.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/27/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/27/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 4 0( 4) 0( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 70 59 47 54 57 59 56 38 30 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 70 69 57 64 67 69 66 48 40 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 70 67 66 73 76 78 75 57 49 40 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 6HR AGO 70 64 61 60 63 65 62 44 36 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT