* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/26/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 65 69 73 78 83 85 80 66 51 40 33 28 25 22 20 17 V (KT) LAND 60 65 69 58 58 63 65 54 37 30 27 20 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 65 69 61 57 65 69 65 39 30 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 11 8 10 11 6 16 26 44 69 119 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -1 0 -3 1 7 7 13 2 -24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 8 2 344 330 335 250 263 257 260 252 248 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.5 28.9 28.5 28.0 27.1 24.8 25.0 20.0 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 168 161 151 145 138 127 108 111 86 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 156 159 152 142 136 127 117 101 105 82 77 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.9 0.3 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 8 8 7 7 7 4 1 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 65 64 65 64 63 63 63 61 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 20 21 22 22 24 22 16 13 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 56 48 46 34 24 30 8 -17 51 107 114 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 38 25 28 19 9 28 57 86 156 121 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -6 -3 2 1 -2 5 22 68 102 151 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 284 181 77 -59 19 275 353 -13 -390 -327 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.5 20.1 20.9 21.6 23.5 26.0 29.6 33.9 37.5 40.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 84.8 85.7 86.6 87.6 88.7 90.6 91.4 89.9 86.2 79.8 71.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 13 15 23 28 33 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 103 105 63 34 37 19 7 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 659 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. -2. -10. -26. -28. -30. -32. -34. -36. -38. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. -0. -9. -14. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 9. 13. 18. 23. 25. 20. 6. -9. -20. -27. -32. -35. -38. -40. -43. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 18.9 84.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 9.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 3.5 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 68.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.45 2.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 36.6 to 2.8 0.50 2.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.99 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.28 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 244.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.68 2.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.55 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.25 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.7 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 3.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 25% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 18.3% 36.1% 24.6% 19.5% 13.6% 20.0% 14.0% 11.6% Logistic: 9.4% 19.6% 10.8% 7.7% 4.6% 14.7% 16.5% 0.7% Bayesian: 8.4% 22.6% 5.0% 2.2% 0.6% 3.5% 2.9% 0.0% Consensus: 12.0% 26.1% 13.4% 9.8% 6.3% 12.7% 11.1% 4.1% DTOPS: 27.0% 11.0% 8.0% 5.0% 3.0% 9.0% 2.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/26/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 3( 3) 0( 3) 0( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 1( 1) 0( 1) 0( 1) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 60 65 69 58 58 63 65 54 37 30 27 20 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18HR AGO 60 59 63 52 52 57 59 48 31 24 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 12HR AGO 60 57 56 45 45 50 52 41 24 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 60 54 51 50 50 55 57 46 29 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT