* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/26/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 64 67 71 77 80 77 69 55 46 40 35 32 30 28 25 V (KT) LAND 55 59 64 67 58 64 67 64 40 31 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 V (KT) LGEM 55 60 64 68 60 64 70 68 41 31 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 14 12 9 10 7 15 26 37 59 110 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -2 0 -3 6 4 12 6 -19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 11 5 334 323 314 255 252 257 249 245 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.7 29.0 28.3 27.3 25.6 24.8 22.6 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 167 168 165 153 142 130 114 109 96 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 157 157 159 157 144 133 120 106 102 91 75 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.0 -52.1 -52.3 -52.5 -53.3 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.8 0.5 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 8 8 7 7 6 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 66 64 63 64 63 65 65 64 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 20 19 19 20 21 21 18 14 20 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 63 53 41 46 37 19 14 13 39 106 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 34 37 27 13 19 34 81 156 177 72 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -1 5 -2 -3 21 64 100 146 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 291 304 222 89 -48 167 414 28 -275 -474 -62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.4 19.0 19.5 20.3 21.0 22.8 25.4 29.0 33.2 37.0 40.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.9 84.6 85.3 86.3 87.4 89.4 90.8 90.5 87.7 82.2 75.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 10 12 13 13 16 21 27 31 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 77 106 119 71 35 18 13 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 32.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. -1. -8. -22. -24. -26. -29. -31. -32. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 0. -4. -10. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 16. 22. 25. 22. 14. -0. -9. -15. -20. -23. -25. -27. -30. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 18.4 83.9 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.69 3.9 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 81.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.54 2.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 36.6 to 2.8 0.53 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.86 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.30 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 214.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.72 2.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.9 27.5 to 139.6 0.65 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -29.7 to 185.9 0.28 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 20% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 44% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 5.7 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 25% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 19% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.9% 43.7% 28.8% 20.1% 14.1% 24.6% 18.9% 13.8% Logistic: 12.8% 29.5% 18.0% 15.6% 10.0% 28.4% 21.0% 1.7% Bayesian: 8.3% 28.3% 7.0% 2.5% 1.0% 3.7% 0.9% 0.0% Consensus: 13.7% 33.9% 17.9% 12.7% 8.4% 18.9% 13.6% 5.2% DTOPS: 21.0% 13.0% 10.0% 9.0% 4.0% 29.0% 19.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/26/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 55 59 64 67 58 64 67 64 40 31 29 30 30 30 30 30 30 18HR AGO 55 54 59 62 53 59 62 59 35 26 24 25 25 25 25 25 25 12HR AGO 55 52 51 54 45 51 54 51 27 18 16 17 17 17 17 17 17 6HR AGO 55 49 46 45 36 42 45 42 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT