* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/26/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 56 62 67 71 78 82 81 76 61 50 44 40 38 37 36 35 V (KT) LAND 50 56 62 67 71 64 68 67 49 34 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGEM 50 57 63 68 73 65 71 73 53 35 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 7 9 10 8 9 12 23 32 42 81 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 2 -1 -2 -2 3 5 8 12 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 15 8 360 355 326 315 251 270 251 256 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.7 28.4 28.0 26.7 24.7 23.8 19.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 165 167 167 168 165 144 138 124 107 102 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 152 156 156 157 157 135 128 115 99 94 78 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.2 -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 7 7 4 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 67 64 63 65 63 63 64 67 63 63 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 19 19 19 18 19 18 13 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 66 52 41 43 13 13 23 23 74 142 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 42 33 36 20 5 23 51 119 172 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -2 1 -6 8 29 77 126 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 253 304 291 195 95 54 339 215 -111 -513 -398 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.6 19.1 19.6 20.1 22.0 24.2 27.2 31.4 35.2 38.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.6 84.1 84.7 85.5 86.4 88.4 90.2 90.6 89.1 85.4 80.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 8 8 9 12 13 14 18 23 26 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 82 110 113 70 28 21 3 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 40.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 12. 12. 12. 11. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 5. 2. -3. -13. -14. -16. -18. -19. -20. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. -0. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 11. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 21. 28. 32. 31. 26. 12. 0. -6. -10. -12. -13. -14. -15. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 18.0 83.6 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.78 13.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.78 5.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 88.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.58 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 3.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.73 2.8 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.7 2.9 to -2.9 0.39 1.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 199.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.73 3.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 27.5 to 139.6 0.70 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.31 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.9 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 52% is 4.7 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 27% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 36% is 7.9 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 19.4% 51.5% 35.5% 23.1% 15.3% 26.8% 36.3% 18.9% Logistic: 13.6% 36.1% 22.5% 14.0% 6.8% 28.1% 32.3% 9.7% Bayesian: 15.0% 56.7% 24.0% 11.7% 4.0% 6.4% 3.5% 0.1% Consensus: 16.0% 48.1% 27.3% 16.3% 8.7% 20.4% 24.0% 9.6% DTOPS: 7.0% 31.0% 15.0% 16.0% 1.0% 11.0% 4.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/26/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/26/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 50 56 62 67 71 64 68 67 49 34 29 29 29 29 29 29 29 18HR AGO 50 49 55 60 64 57 61 60 42 27 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 12HR AGO 50 47 46 51 55 48 52 51 33 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 50 44 41 40 44 37 41 40 22 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT