* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/25/20 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 51 59 66 72 83 89 87 83 66 53 48 44 41 40 40 40 V (KT) LAND 45 51 59 66 72 66 71 69 64 41 31 28 28 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 45 50 56 62 68 66 69 73 69 44 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 6 4 8 8 6 8 21 26 38 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 2 0 11 7 11 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 350 14 3 6 1 325 312 263 258 250 241 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.0 28.3 27.5 25.8 24.9 22.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 166 167 167 152 142 132 115 109 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 151 153 156 157 143 132 122 107 102 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.0 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -52.1 -52.3 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 8 7 7 7 3 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 68 66 63 63 62 58 57 61 60 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 17 18 20 20 22 22 22 21 14 14 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 76 56 48 40 26 25 9 41 64 147 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 62 60 53 44 44 22 29 41 84 99 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 -4 -4 7 10 30 74 68 151 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 250 284 318 259 179 -57 170 423 53 -241 -557 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.0 18.4 18.7 19.2 19.6 21.0 22.8 25.3 28.8 32.8 37.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.7 84.0 84.3 85.0 85.7 87.5 89.5 90.4 89.8 87.2 83.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 2 5 6 8 9 12 13 15 20 25 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 67 77 88 114 105 35 18 15 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 499 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 53.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. 17. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 1. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 16. 12. 6. 2. -3. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 7. 14. 21. 27. 38. 44. 42. 38. 21. 8. 3. -1. -4. -5. -5. -5. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 18.0 83.7 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 10.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 30.1 to 2.3 0.82 4.6 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 90.2 0.0 to 151.8 0.59 3.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.43 2.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.59 1.9 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.1 2.9 to -2.9 0.31 1.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 163.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.77 2.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.8 27.5 to 139.6 0.72 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 52.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 43% is 4.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 29% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 23% is 5.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 43.4% 28.6% 13.9% 12.8% 22.8% 35.2% 20.7% Logistic: 7.9% 18.7% 13.3% 6.5% 1.3% 6.5% 11.0% 3.6% Bayesian: 7.6% 14.9% 9.0% 3.3% 3.2% 4.2% 3.9% 0.1% Consensus: 8.2% 25.7% 17.0% 7.9% 5.8% 11.2% 16.7% 8.2% DTOPS: 5.0% 61.0% 25.0% 10.0% 1.0% 11.0% 6.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/25/2020 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 4( 4) 0( 4) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 45 51 59 66 72 66 71 69 64 41 31 28 28 28 27 27 27 18HR AGO 45 44 52 59 65 59 64 62 57 34 24 21 21 21 20 20 20 12HR AGO 45 42 41 48 54 48 53 51 46 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 45 39 36 35 41 35 40 38 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT