* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/25/20 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 47 53 59 67 76 79 77 69 56 52 50 49 49 49 48 V (KT) LAND 35 40 47 53 59 67 59 62 60 51 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 38 42 47 51 59 52 59 61 48 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 10 10 4 3 6 7 8 15 25 40 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 0 1 -1 0 4 4 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 342 1 25 356 357 318 308 260 257 226 226 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.6 28.5 28.0 26.9 24.9 24.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 164 165 166 167 162 145 138 125 107 106 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 146 149 151 154 155 152 136 127 115 98 96 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -52.3 -52.0 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.5 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 7 8 6 7 2 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 66 66 62 60 60 59 53 56 49 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 15 16 18 19 18 19 18 18 16 15 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 70 75 74 58 45 34 13 30 52 130 222 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 51 53 60 41 21 26 50 50 72 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 2 1 12 33 12 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 226 258 289 312 248 65 35 312 259 2 -331 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.8 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.2 20.3 21.8 23.9 26.8 30.1 33.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.8 83.9 84.0 84.6 85.1 86.6 88.5 90.4 90.7 89.9 88.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 5 7 8 10 13 13 16 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 69 77 97 114 62 33 21 5 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 44.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. 28. 28. 28. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 2. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. -0. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 4. 7. 10. 14. 13. 9. 5. 1. -2. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -9. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 5. 12. 18. 24. 32. 41. 44. 42. 34. 21. 17. 15. 14. 14. 14. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.8 83.8 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 6.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.84 3.3 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 84.4 0.0 to 151.8 0.56 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 0.7 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.9 to -2.9 0.42 1.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 147.4 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 2.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.0 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.38 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.79 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 32% is 3.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 4.6 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 30% is 6.4 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 30% is 5.8 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 32.2% 19.0% 11.9% 11.5% 13.9% 29.5% 30.3% Logistic: 9.7% 18.0% 15.7% 7.6% 1.0% 6.3% 11.0% 3.0% Bayesian: 6.7% 10.9% 15.1% 8.2% 5.3% 8.2% 4.9% 0.4% Consensus: 8.0% 20.4% 16.6% 9.2% 5.9% 9.4% 15.1% 11.2% DTOPS: 3.0% 47.0% 9.0% 2.0% 0.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/25/2020 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 3( 3) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 40 47 53 59 67 59 62 60 51 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 41 47 53 61 53 56 54 45 27 23 21 21 21 21 21 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 43 51 43 46 44 35 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 31 39 31 34 32 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT