* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * ZETA AL282020 10/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 46 52 57 63 69 71 67 65 58 56 55 56 57 59 59 V (KT) LAND 35 41 46 52 57 63 52 57 53 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGEM 35 40 44 48 53 59 51 55 58 59 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 8 3 6 7 9 9 21 24 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 0 0 1 2 0 3 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 313 331 343 305 284 328 312 286 254 231 216 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.9 28.8 28.2 27.3 26.2 24.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 165 167 166 166 167 149 141 129 118 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 148 149 152 152 154 156 139 131 119 107 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 9 8 8 9 8 8 7 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 67 65 64 59 55 53 52 55 57 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 13 14 14 14 13 12 9 11 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 78 63 66 71 55 32 16 18 33 54 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 70 45 33 41 51 41 34 27 45 89 80 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 -2 19 12 -15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 224 259 296 333 289 142 -42 200 392 52 -159 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.1 18.4 18.8 19.2 19.9 21.2 23.0 25.6 28.7 31.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.5 83.6 83.6 84.1 84.5 86.0 87.8 89.8 90.9 90.5 89.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 4 6 7 9 12 13 15 16 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 66 71 76 91 114 89 33 17 11 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 1 CX,CY: 0/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 41.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 14. 18. 21. 23. 25. 27. 29. 29. 29. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 8. 6. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -8. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 12. 8. 4. 1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 6. 12. 17. 22. 28. 34. 36. 32. 30. 23. 21. 20. 21. 22. 24. 24. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 17.7 83.5 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.72 11.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.7 30.1 to 2.3 0.81 5.1 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 83.6 0.0 to 151.8 0.55 3.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 36.6 to 2.8 0.66 4.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.33 1.2 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.9 2.9 to -2.9 0.35 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 144.6 895.4 to -55.0 0.79 3.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.79 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.36 0.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.0 100.0 to 0.0 0.97 0.4 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 47% is 4.3 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 33% is 4.7 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 5.2 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 24% is 5.3 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 35% is 7.5 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 39% is 7.6 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.1% 46.9% 32.7% 16.4% 13.1% 24.3% 34.7% 39.4% Logistic: 20.5% 42.5% 39.1% 30.0% 7.0% 27.7% 24.5% 10.5% Bayesian: 19.2% 3.1% 23.7% 19.7% 9.4% 21.1% 8.1% 0.7% Consensus: 17.0% 30.8% 31.8% 22.0% 9.8% 24.4% 22.4% 16.9% DTOPS: 4.0% 8.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 ZETA 10/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 ZETA 10/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 35 41 46 52 57 63 52 57 53 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 27 18HR AGO 35 34 39 45 50 56 45 50 46 44 28 22 21 20 20 20 20 12HR AGO 35 32 31 37 42 48 37 42 38 36 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 6HR AGO 35 29 26 25 30 36 25 30 26 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT