* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWENTYEIG AL282020 10/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 53 57 58 55 50 42 29 28 28 29 29 V (KT) LAND 30 33 36 39 42 46 53 57 58 55 50 34 29 28 28 28 28 V (KT) LGEM 30 32 34 36 38 41 43 44 46 47 46 33 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 12 12 10 8 11 7 9 14 20 35 58 93 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -1 -1 0 1 0 2 1 1 0 7 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 276 296 306 305 267 303 297 289 234 238 193 219 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.9 29.8 28.8 28.3 28.0 27.2 25.7 24.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 164 165 165 165 149 141 137 127 114 110 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 146 146 147 149 151 137 129 124 114 105 104 86 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.6 -52.8 -52.5 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.3 -51.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 8 7 8 7 8 2 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 75 71 68 64 62 56 56 56 55 54 47 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 12 11 11 13 13 13 13 11 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 63 58 62 64 26 12 -13 12 36 124 184 166 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 74 57 48 38 31 21 21 41 57 56 36 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -1 0 1 0 0 -2 -1 -5 7 27 -92 -35 -59 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 342 312 283 248 215 133 43 140 360 304 7 -273 -506 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.9 19.2 19.4 19.7 19.9 20.6 21.5 22.8 24.4 26.4 29.2 33.1 38.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 83.1 83.2 83.3 83.5 83.8 84.8 86.5 88.4 90.2 91.0 90.4 87.2 81.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 5 7 10 11 11 12 19 29 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 83 89 96 110 126 129 42 21 22 8 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 26.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 20. 23. 26. 27. 28. 30. 30. 30. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 5. 2. -6. -21. -24. -27. -28. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. 0. -0. -1. -4. -7. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 6. 4. 2. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 16. 23. 27. 28. 25. 20. 12. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 18.9 83.1 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL282020 TWENTYEIG 10/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.66 5.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.70 2.2 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 100.8 0.0 to 151.8 0.66 2.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.3 36.6 to 2.8 0.39 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.20 0.4 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 1.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.29 0.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 106.0 895.4 to -55.0 0.83 1.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.80 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 56.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.40 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.9 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 4.1 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 35% is 6.7 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.1% 21.1% 15.0% 11.1% 10.4% 12.3% 14.7% 35.1% Logistic: 5.7% 22.0% 15.9% 8.5% 1.6% 6.5% 10.5% 13.3% Bayesian: 1.5% 1.8% 1.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.5% 2.4% 0.3% Consensus: 4.7% 14.9% 10.8% 6.8% 4.1% 6.4% 9.2% 16.2% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL282020 TWENTYEIG 10/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL282020 TWENTYEIG 10/25/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 30 33 36 39 42 46 53 57 58 55 50 34 29 28 28 28 28 18HR AGO 30 29 32 35 38 42 49 53 54 51 46 30 25 24 24 24 24 12HR AGO 30 27 26 29 32 36 43 47 48 45 40 24 19 18 18 18 18 6HR AGO 30 24 21 20 23 27 34 38 39 36 31 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT