* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/25/20 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 63 60 58 55 50 53 50 46 44 41 38 34 30 27 25 24 V (KT) LAND 65 63 60 58 55 50 53 50 46 44 41 38 34 30 27 25 24 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 57 56 58 58 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 16 19 17 20 25 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 5 5 7 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 179 178 198 203 188 205 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.1 15.1 11.2 15.6 15.2 11.1 10.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 82 75 73 78 78 72 71 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 77 72 72 75 75 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -55.1 -51.8 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 2.0 1.7 1.3 1.4 0.8 0.5 2.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 49 44 49 52 60 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 41 40 38 37 36 37 45 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 101 134 160 182 204 349 338 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 81 91 102 90 94 -1 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 14 2 -5 -1 -49 -56 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 522 342 415 780 1184 1098 861 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 42.1 43.8 45.5 47.5 49.5 54.1 59.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 55.3 51.6 48.0 42.4 36.8 26.8 20.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 28 31 37 43 40 34 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 24 CX,CY: 17/ 17 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 717 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -3. -5. -8. -9. -13. -17. -22. -26. -30. -33. -36. -38. -41. -42. -44. -44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 16. 16. 17. 19. 19. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -10. -10. -10. -11. -11. -12. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -2. -5. -7. -10. -15. -12. -15. -19. -21. -24. -27. -31. -35. -38. -40. -41. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 42.1 55.3 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/20 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.6 30.1 to 2.3 0.48 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.9 36.6 to 2.8 0.46 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -1.3 2.9 to -2.9 0.73 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 279.8 895.4 to -55.0 0.65 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 9.3 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.6 -29.7 to 185.9 0.56 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.3 100.0 to 0.0 0.75 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/20 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/2020 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 63 60 58 55 50 53 50 46 44 41 38 34 30 27 25 24 18HR AGO 65 64 61 59 56 51 54 51 47 45 42 39 35 31 28 26 25 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 56 51 54 51 47 45 42 39 35 31 28 26 25 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 52 47 50 47 43 41 38 35 31 27 24 22 21 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT