* GFS version * * ATLANTIC 2020 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * EPSILON AL272020 10/25/20 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 62 60 59 54 55 54 51 49 46 43 40 35 31 28 25 V (KT) LAND 65 64 62 60 59 54 55 54 51 49 46 43 40 35 31 28 25 V (KT) LGEM 65 62 58 56 55 59 60 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 14 15 46 29 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 0 1 2 6 6 9 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 184 183 177 201 209 219 152 220 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.9 20.5 14.4 13.8 16.5 12.6 11.9 10.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 109 86 75 75 80 74 72 70 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 98 80 72 73 76 73 70 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.5 -56.0 -56.1 -56.0 -54.0 -51.9 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 2.0 1.7 1.4 1.3 0.2 2.7 3.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 59 53 51 53 58 62 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 42 42 40 38 37 38 48 47 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 80 134 158 172 245 321 319 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 105 84 93 117 86 49 47 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV -5 -1 8 -15 -2 -68 20 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 617 530 389 535 828 1376 781 734 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 40.4 42.0 43.5 45.4 47.2 51.5 56.4 61.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 57.4 54.3 51.1 46.4 41.8 30.3 21.5 16.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 25 28 33 38 40 39 31 27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 45/ 21 CX,CY: 15/ 15 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=620) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -8. -11. -15. -20. -25. -28. -31. -34. -36. -39. -40. -42. -42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 0. -3. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -15. -17. -17. -17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. 14. 14. 15. 17. 17. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -7. -9. -9. -9. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -5. -6. -11. -10. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -25. -30. -34. -37. -40. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 40.4 57.4 ** 2020 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/20 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MOREMAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -49.5 to 33.0 0.54 999.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.5 30.1 to 2.3 0.63 999.0 HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 151.8 0.00 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 36.6 to 2.8 0.57 999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 137.5 0.94 999.0 2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.2 2.9 to -2.9 0.53 999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 297.2 895.4 to -55.0 0.63 999.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 15.1 27.5 to 139.6 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 97.0 -29.7 to 185.9 0.59 999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.2 100.0 to 0.0 0.66 999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (10.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 3.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.2%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/20 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL272020 EPSILON 10/25/2020 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 2 0( 2) 0( 2) 0( 2) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY) ** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE ** TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 >24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 65 64 62 60 59 54 55 54 51 49 46 43 40 35 31 28 25 18HR AGO 65 64 62 60 59 54 55 54 51 49 46 43 40 35 31 28 25 12HR AGO 65 62 61 59 58 53 54 53 50 48 45 42 39 34 30 27 24 6HR AGO 65 59 56 55 54 49 50 49 46 44 41 38 35 30 26 23 20 NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT